考量預購禮之最適定價策略研究

Abstract

預售搭配預購禮是一常見的銷售方式。廠商採取預售銷售，可以提早知道部份需求並規劃生產，不只減少市場需求不確定同時能降低庫存風險；消費者事先預購，可以避免買不到產品的情況發生。然而，消費者在預售期間對於產品評價的不確定性可能使消費者打退堂鼓，因此廠商必須提供預購獎勵(pre-order incentive) 來減低消費者對於產品的不確定性。預購禮即是一種預購獎勵，除了增加消費者的購買意願外，還能幫助吸引其他潛在客群，進一步增加市場需求，但廠商也因此必須付出額外成本。因此，本研究基於預購禮在預售銷售上所扮演的角色，建構一個兩期(第一期預購期與第二期銷售期) 銷售的數學模型並求得在預購禮使用下廠商兩期訂價、第二期生產量與預購禮投入程度最佳解。本研究發現預購禮的使用可讓廠商在維持較高的第一期訂價下，讓消費者選擇預購，得到較大的獲利。此外，當預購禮帶來的整體效益愈高，廠商的第一期獲利愈大的情況下，有助於廠商在第二期決策上採取較積極的作為、面對較大的市場風險。然而，預售搭配預購禮並非總是廠商最佳的選擇，還必須考慮自身產能條件與市場狀況情況，例如當廠商的訂價空間較大、產能有限的情況下，預售搭配預購禮就會是廠商的最佳策略。

More and more sellers are offering freebies in advance selling. Advance selling helps sellers not only to ensure parts of the demand in advance, but also reduce the demand uncertainty and inventory risk. Consumers who buy in advance can avoid not being able to find products in the spot market, but they may prefer not buying in advance because of the uncertainty of the product valuation in advance. Therefore, sellers would offer pre-order incentive to encourage consumers to pre-order. Freebies are one of the examples. Freebies can be used to compensate for the uncertainty and draw attention of new customers, but sellers would have additional costs as well. As a results, considering offering freebies in advance selling, this research presents a two-period setting model, where the first period is advance selling period and the second is the spot period, and finds the optimal solutions for the price in advance and in spot, the production level and the effort to put in freebies. In this research, it is found that freebies can help encourage consumers to pre-order with a higher price to protect the profit margin of the product. In addition, the more benefit the freebie provides, the more wiliness the seller would take the risk in the spot period. However, selling in advance with freebies is not always the best options for the seller. When having greater profit margin but limited capacity, it would be the optimal strategy for the seller to sell in advance with freebies.