投資型保單決定因素之探討

Abstract

台灣投資型保費收入自2003年起快速攀升，於2007 投資型商品銷售達到高峰，其新契約保費收入佔所有壽險新契約高達62%。受2008年金融海嘯之影響，投資型保險新契約保費收入佔壽險新契約比重急速下降至35%，而在2009~2012年期間持續下滑。本研究為探討影響投資型保單之因素，以2003-2013年12家壽險公司的投資型保險新契約保單面額資料進行實證研究，以追蹤資料迴歸之固定效果模型及隨機效果模型進行分析。使用解釋變數包含壽險公司淨值、平均每人國民所得、儲蓄率、五大行庫一年期存款利率、美元兌換新台幣匯率、MSCI全球股價指數、摩根大通全球債券指數、及境內及境外基金數目，最後探討各變數對本國壽險公司及外商壽險公司之影響是否具有差異。 實證結果發現，平均每人國民所得、美元兌換新台幣匯率、MSCI全球股價指數、及境內及境外基金數目顯著正向影響投資型保單。而儲蓄率、五大行庫一年期存款利率、與摩根大通全球債券指數顯著負向影響投資型保單。就本國及外商壽險公司而言，平均每人國民所得、及美元兌換台幣之匯率對投資型保單皆為顯著正向影響，而儲蓄率為顯著負向影響。MSCI全球股價指數、及摩根大通全球債券指數僅對本國壽險公司具統計顯著性，分別為正向影響、及負向影響。境內及境外基金數目僅對外商壽險公司具顯著正向影響。

Taiwan’s investment-linked new insurance premium saw a rapid growth since 2003. The investment-linked insurance new insurance premium reached peak in 2007, where the investment-linked new insurance premium as a percentage of total life insurance new premium reached 62%. However affected by financial tsunami in 2008, the investment-linked new policy premium as a percentage of total life insurance new premium experience a significant decrease to 35%. And for the period of 2009~2012, the percentage continued to fall. This paper investigated the factors that affect the investment-linked insurance in Taiwan. We used 12 insurance companies’ investment-linked new insurance policy’s face value as explained variable, and used panel data’s fixed effect model and random effect model in analysis. We used insurance companies’ equity value、average income per capita、saving rate、one year term deposit rate of five largest banks、USD/NTD exchange rate、MSCI world stock index、J.P. Morgan Global Aggregate Bond Index and the number of domestic and foreign funds as explanatory variables. Finally, we examined if the effect on the domestic and foreign insurance companies are different. The empirical results shows that there is a positive correlation between average income per capita、USD/NTD exchange rate、MSCI world stock index and the number of domestic and foreign funds with investment-linked insurance. Whereas saving rate、one year term deposit rate of five largest banks、and J.P. Morgan Global Aggregate Bond Index are negatively correlated with investment-linked insurance. Furthermore, both domestic and foreign insurance companies are positively affected by average income per capita and USD/NTD exchange rate, and negatively affected by the saving rate. Only domestic insurance companies are positively affected by MSCI world stock index, and negatively affected by J.P. Morgan Global Aggregate Bond Index. The number of domestic and foreign funds have only positive effect on the foreign insurance companies.