台灣民間消費決定因素之研究

Abstract

台灣民間消費佔GDP六成，要使經濟成長率提高非民間消費增加不可，是以影響民間消費因素為產官學界研究重點，本文除了從總體變數如五大行庫放款利率、可支配所得與GINI係數做討論外，亦從人口年齡結構的觀點如20歲、30歲、40歲、50歲、60歲年齡組距人口數、扶養比與民間消費做分析，最後再以台灣加權股價指數與95無鉛汽油零售價探討與民間消費影響關係。本文架構為先對民間消費與各種變數進行Granger因果檢定、單根檢定，再將民間消費與其他變數做迴歸分析與相關性分析。 實證結果顯示，Granger因果關係檢定為可支配所得與民間消費存在雙向因果關係、五大行庫放款利率與民間消費存在單向因果關係、台灣加權股價指數與民間消費存在單向因果關係、GINI係數與民間消費無因果關係、扶養比與民間消費無因果關係、95無鉛汽油零售價與民間消費無因果關係。由於除了放款利率、台灣加權指數無殘差自我相關問題外，其他變數經由加入AR(1)調整後，D-W值均符合標準範圍內。民間消費與變數相關性分析結果如下，GINI係數與民間消費為負相關且不顯著，五大行庫放款基準利率相關性低但影響顯著，扶養比為負相關影響不顯著，年齡人口以40歲至49歲人口數影響民間消費正相關最顯著，是年齡組分中相關性最高者，50歲至59歲年齡層人口對於民間消費是負相關影響顯著，台灣加權股價指數與民間消費相關性極低影響不顯著，95無鉛汽油零售價與民間消費為低負相關且影響顯著。

Private consumption expenditure make up of 60% of Taiwan’s GDP. It’s necessary to increase the private consumption expenditure in order to increase the growth in GDP, thus the studies on how to stimulate private consumption expenditure have been the focus of the policy makers in the past. We will consider the macroeconomics variable such as the lending rate of five largest banks, disposable income and Gini coefficient. In addition, we’ll also consider population age structure, dependency ratio variables. Finally we’ll examine the relationship of Taiwan weighted stock index and 95 unleaded gasoline prices with the private consumption expenditure. We will first run the Granger causality test between the private consumption expenditure with other variables, and run unit root test on all the variables, then regress independent variables against the dependent variable, and conduct a correlation analysis. Empirical study shows that there’s bilateral causality between the disposable income and the private consumption expenditure. There’s unidirectional causality between the lending rate of the five largest banks with private consumption expenditure, and Taiwan weighted stock index with private consumption expenditure. There is no causal relationship between private consumption expenditure with Gini coefficient, dependency ratio and 95 unleaded gasoline prices. Except lending rate and Taiwan weighted stock index have no autocorrelation in the error terms, other variables once adjusted for AR(1), D-W statistics are all in the acceptable range. The empirical results shows that Gini coefficient is statistical significant negatively related with private consumption expenditure. The population aged between 40-49 years old is statistical significant positive related with private consumption expenditure, whereas population aged between 50-59 years old is statistical significant negative related with private consumption expenditure. The 95 unleaded gasoline price is statistical significant negative related with private consumption expenditure. Finally dependency ratio, Taiwan weighted stock index are not statistically significant related with private consumption expenditure.