“BOT+產業開發”模式下內河水運的風險分析研究 ——賀江航運工程為例

Abstract

近年以來中國大陸地區大力發展基礎設施建設，包括鐵路、公路、橋樑等設施的建造，但是內陸航運的建設發展卻顯得尤為緩慢，嚴重阻礙內陸流域經濟發展！投資建設內河航運工程從長遠上看，可快速的聯通內陸地區和沿海經濟發達地區，達到有效地經濟聯動性。本文以廣西壯族自治區賀州市賀江航運工程“BOT+產業開發'項目為研究案例，由於該項目是大陸地區首個“BOT+產業開發'模式進行建設開發的項目，因此並沒有具體的航運工程運用此模式全壽命完成。實際運作不成熟，需要在逐步摸索中完成並改善，BOT+產業開發模式下的風險分析和控制方法是本文主要探討的問題，解決完善該問題便可減少在項目實施過程中所遇到的困難。 根據國家和地區相關政策結合研究項目情況，在賀江航運一期工程階段存在盈利能力較差的問題，營運期內使用者付費總額均不足以支付項目所貸款的利息，有較大的資金缺口，因此單一的 BOT 模式，或 PPP 模式還是政府投資都很難將該項目徹底實施。由此營運而生全新的建設模式 “BOT+產業開發'模式，通過額外的捆綁其他的產業開發，利用投資收益沖抵項目建設投資支出，來達到降低項目建設資金缺口的目的。 本文通過梳理國內外多種模式下的建設風險管理相關理論，並通過專家訪談和問卷調查，通過因素分析對賀州市賀江航運工程“BOT+產業開發'項目風險因素進行分析，識別出兩大類主要風險因素。根據識別出的風險因素構建風險指標評價體系，運用層次分析法對該航運工程進行風險綜合評價，對其重要度進行排序。再根據重要程度，對該“BOT+產業開發'工程的主要風險進行控制，並提出相應的控制措施，事先對賀江航運工程“BOT+產業開發'項目進行控制管理。

In recent years, the mainland China has vigorously developed infrastructure construction, including the construction of railways, highways, bridges and other facilities, but the construction and development of inland shipping has been particularly slow, seriously hindering the economic development of inland river basins! This article takes the “BOT+Industry Development” project of Hejiang Shipping Project in Hezhou City, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region as a research case. Since this project is the first “BOT+Industry Development” model construction and development project in the mainland, there is no specific shipping project to use this project. The model has completed its life span. The actual operation is immature and needs to be completed and improved through gradual exploration. The risk analysis and control methods in the BOT+ industry development model are the main issues discussed in this article. Solving this problem can reduce the difficulties encountered in the project implementation process. In this paper, through combing the relevant theories of construction risk management under various modes at home and abroad, and through expert interviews and questionnaires, through factor analysis, the risk factors of the 'BOT+Industry Development' project of Hejiang Shipping Engineering in Hezhou City were analyzed to identify two major types of risks factor. According to the identified risk factors, a risk index evaluation system is constructed. AHP is used to comprehensively evaluate the risk of the shipping project and rank its importance. According to the importance, the main risks of the 'BOT+Industry Development' project are controlled, and corresponding control measures are proposed to control and manage the 'BOT+Industry Development' project of the Hejiang Shipping Project in advance.