1997年以來中港兩地雙邊貿易關係之研究

Abstract

本研究運用貿易引力模型中國內地對香港貿易流量的關係，對1997-2011年中國內地29個省、自治區以及直轄市與香港的雙邊貿易的長期追蹤型資料進行實證研究。此外，還基於Balassa模型對CEPA簽署後廣東省與香港的貿易效應進行分析。 結果表明雙邊貿易流量的規模與各自的經濟總量呈正比、與兩地的人均GDP差距呈反比。同時，CEPA能夠顯著促進雙邊貿易流量；而經濟危機的出現也會一定程度上阻礙兩地貿易。實證研究還表明，CEPA簽署後，粵港兩地均在一定程度上獲得了貿易創造效應。

This research examines the trade mode between mainland China and Hong Kong, and empirically studies the bilateral trade panel data of China’s 29 provinces and Hong Kong in 1997-2011. Moreover, both Guangdong and Hong Kong’s trade effect since CEPA’s signature is analyzed. The results show that the trade scale is proportional to GDP, but is in inverse proportion to the per capita income gap between Hong Kong and mainland China. Also, the CEPA promotes two-way trade significantly while the economic crisis decreases bilateral trade flows to some extent. Besides, both Guangdong and Hong Kong have gained trade creation effect since CEPA was signed.