海地經濟成長之決定因素：1980年至2013年之時間序列分析

Abstract

This study investigates the dynamic interactions between economic growth and some factors such as foreign direct investment, foreign aid, gross capital formation, national saving and inflation rate in Haiti over the period 1980-2013. To achieve the objectives of the study, Vector Autoregressive model (VAR) is used as analytical framework. As the variables are cointegrated, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Granger - causality are used to describe both the short-run and long-run effects between the variables. Furthermore, impulse response functions and variance decompositions are performed to examine the dynamic relationship between the variables. The results show that in the long-run : 1) one percent increase in Foreign Direct Investment will increase RGDP by 0.03 % , ceteris paribus 2) one percent increase in National Saving will increase RGDP by 0.07 % 3) one percent increase in Gross Capital Formation will increase RGDP by 0.24 % 4) one percent increase in Inflation Rate will decrease RGDP by 0.4 % and one percent increase in Foreign Aid will increase insignificantly RGDP by 0.008 % . In the short-run, it is found no causality running from the independent variables to Real GDP at 5% but at 10 % only national saving granger-causes Real GDP. Nevertheless, it is depicted causality running from Real GDP to foreign direct investment, national saving and foreign aid at 5 %. Finally, it can be noted that The VECM results are confirmed by the impulse response functions and variance decompositions results. Thus, based on these findings, it is recommended that adequate policies be implemented in order to promote foreign direct investment, savings and gross capital formation in the country. Likewise, it is worth making a better coordination of the foreign aid in the country.