消費靜止行為之預測及其影響因素之探討：危險率模型之應用

Abstract

資訊科技日新月異的進步，從以前透過關係行銷、一對一行銷的行銷方式到現在最熱門、每家企業都不容忽視的行銷方法-資料庫行銷。為了讓每一元的行銷費用能夠發揮其最大的價值，建立完整的顧客資料庫是非常重要的。從顧客每一次的購買交易記錄，可以觀察並預測出顧客個別不同的偏好與需求，企業能提供給消費者更適合、更準確的產品或服務，並盡可能滿足他，提高回購率。但除了了解消費者的需求，本研究希望從另一種面向來探討如何挽留住顧客：降低顧客停止消費的機率。 本研究藉由payeasy購物網站的資料庫，透過危險率迴歸分析，得出具備哪些消費行為特性的顧客，特別容易在哪一種類別產生消費靜止的行為。將有助於企業針對同樣具備這些消費行為特性的其他顧客，在靜止行為出現之前，能提供有效的行銷活動，例如促銷降價、紅利回饋等方式，刺激他們再次回到這個平台消費，強化顧客對平台的依賴度及忠誠度。 迴歸的最終結果顯示了在美妝美體類別中，忠誠度分數（loyalty）、總購買次數、平均消費金額、美妝美體類的次數占比、生活更便利類金額占比、美妝美體類金額占比，這幾項行為變數會影響顧客在美妝美體類別中的消費行為之變化。本研究認為，顧客的各種行為變數皆有可能會影響到消費靜止的機率，如同本研究所採用的在各個類別消費次數占比與金額比，儘管是不同的類別、類別的性質不盡相似，但彼此還是有可能會互相影響消費靜止行為。企業應當將顧客各種行為變數皆透過資料庫記錄下來，並加以探討，減少顧客流失的機率。

The rapid progress of technology, from relationship marketing in the past, to one-to-one marketing, and now the most popular way of marketing, which marketing method that each company should not be overlooked - database marketing. In order to maximize the value of every dollar for marketing costs, establish a complete customer database is very important. From the customers’ transaction records for each time, you can observe and predict individual customer preferences and their real needs. Then companies can offer every consumer a more suitable and more accurate product or service, and as far as possible to satisfied them, to improve the repo rate. But in addition to understanding the needs of consumers, this study hopes to discuss how to retain live customer: reduce the chance that customer stop consumption. By using Payeasy database and research method of hazard rate regression analysis to figure out what kind of customers are particularly tend to stop consuming in specific category with kind of characteristics in consumer behavior. The research will help companies to deliver an effective and precise marketing strategy to consumers with similar characteristic and resemble consumer behavior. This kind of marketing activities such as promotional pricing down, bonuses feedback, etc., to stimulate their consumption to return to the platform, and strengthen customer reliance and loyalty with platform. The result shows that the loyalty points, the total number of purchases, the average amount of consumption, the frequency of accounting for Beauty and Body category, the amount of life category, and the amount of Beauty and Body category, will affect consumer behavior of customers who have consumed in Beauty and Body category. This study suggests that a variety of customer behavior variables will affect the chances of anything is possible stationary consumption, as in this study accounted for in each category of consumption frequency and amount ratio, even though these categories are not with similar nature, but they are still likely to affect the consumer behavior. Enterprises should record all of the various behavior variables through a database and to explore the chances of static consumption, reducing the probability of loss of customers.