房價影響因子供需整合模型： 我國觀光旅館房價市場差異比較實證研究

Abstract

本文主旨在於探討台灣觀光旅館房價之影響因素。首先藉由文獻回顧及市場集中度指標，發現台灣觀光旅館市場整體而言屬於不完全競爭市場。接著整合供給與需求面二個角度，建立計量模型分析觀光旅館平均房價的影響因子，實證結果顯示，中國大陸及港澳來台旅客數為使台灣觀光旅館房價上升的重要變數，呼應近年來中國大陸來台觀光客漸增、台灣觀光旅館房價日益攀升的現象，陸客自由行開放政策對於中國大陸來台旅客數則有顯著的正面影響。另外藉由門檻迴歸模型，本文發現在以客房住用率做為門檻變數時，若客房住用率大於79%，大台北地區（台北市加新北市）整體觀光旅館客房數的係數會顯著上升，反映房價對客房供給量的敏感性提升。除此之外，本研究亦使用自我迴歸模型，進行前述供需模型中各個房價影響因子之估計。最後，本文亦針對各變數變動對於房價變化之影響，進行模擬預測分析。而除了考慮全台灣、台北市、新北市與大台北地區（台北市加新北市）整體之情況，本文亦將樣本分為國際及一般觀光旅館進行實證分析，期許能為台灣觀光旅館之經營管理提供全面性的指引。

This paper aims at discussing the key factors influencing the hotel room rates of Taiwan’s tourist hotels. The first step of the research is to examine the structure of tourist hotel market between Taipei area and Taiwan by reviewing the past literature and the market concentration index, HHI. The result indicates that Taiwan’s tourist hotel market is in the condition of imperfect competition. The second step is to set up an econometric model in the perspectives of both the supply and demand of the market to investigate the variables that impact the room rate of Taiwan’s tourist hotels. The empirical evidence shows that the exploding growing number of foreign visitors (who are mainly from Mainland China, Hong Kong and Macao) in the recent years significantly increases the room rates of the tourist hotels in Taiwan. The government’s opening policy also brought in more Mainland China tourists. In addition, the result of the threshold regression model indicates that if hotel occupancy rate is larger than 79%, the coefficient of tourist hotel rooms in Taipei Area (Taipei City and New Taipei City) rises significantly, reflecting the increasing sensitivity of price to quantity supplied. With autoregressive model, we can further estimate the price-influencing factors that are included in the supply and demand regressions mentioned above. In the last section, the changes in the hotel room rate are simulated given different levels of independent variables. This paper also conducts empirical study on the tourist hotel room rates in Taipei City and New Taipei City respectively, and classifies all of the samples into two categories: tourist hotel and international tourist hotel, in the hope of providing an overall guidance for the operation and management of Taiwan’s tourist hotels.