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標題: | 匯率風險下跨國企業之避險、定價與競爭策略:
賽局理論之應用 Hedging, Pricing and Competition Strategies for Multinational Corporations under Exchange Rate Risk: From the Perspective of Game Theory |
作者: | Chih-Hsiung Shyu 徐智雄 |
指導教授: | 李存修(Tsun-Siou Lee),陳思寬(Shi-Kuan Chen) |
關鍵字: | 匯率波動,轉換風險,交易風險,經濟風險,對沖,營運對沖,財務對沖,合約對沖,賽局理論,價格策略,營運綜效,可信的承諾,邊緣策略運用, Foreign Exchange Rate Fluctuation,Translation Risk,Transaction Risk,Economic Risk,Hedging Policy,Operating hedges,Financial Hedges,Contractual Hedges,Game Theory,Price Strategy,Operation Synergy,Creditable Commitment,Brinkmanship., |
出版年 : | 2015 |
學位: | 碩士 |
摘要: | 摘要
匯率波動所帶來的交易風險、轉換風險及經濟風險,會嚴重影響到跨國公司的經營績效及競爭力。交易風險及轉換風險可以財務曝險部位來計算,但是經濟風險則不易量化,因為其包含短期及長期的經營風險。針對交易風險以及轉換風險,一般以對沖的策略來因應。跨國公司之財務部門在金融市場上操作對沖,以規避匯率波動所造成的風險,但是在短期操作對沖有可能得到負面的結果,而且對沖所產生的財務成本會變成跨國公司額外的成本負擔。所以對沖的有效性與及時性往往不能滿足跨國公司有效管理匯率波動風險的需求。經濟風險則必須回歸到經營競爭策略之及時調整才能有效管理匯率波動所造成的短期及長期之經營風險。 本研究首先討論,在單一國家匯率貶值,多個國家匯率貶值及多個國家匯率不確定的三種狀況下,跨國公司以成本結構、市場價格、通路管理以及政府對匯率的政策走向等四個構面,來制定因應匯率波動的價格策略,並且以賽局理論的架構來探討,以競爭對手的思維來制定價格策略及決定執行模式。 其次,本研究探討,在匯率不確定的狀況下,跨國公司與競爭對手採用不同功能性貨幣的競爭分析。當跨國公司具有匯率優勢時,所應採取的價格策略及執行策略模式,而相對的,跨國公司在面臨匯率劣勢時,所應該採取的策略及其執行模式。我們仍然以賽局理論的架構來為跨國公司提供最合適的策略及在市場上與競爭對手競爭的模式。 期望本研究所提出之匯率波動風險下,跨國公司的價格策略架構、競爭分析模型及執行方式,能為跨國公司有效管理匯率波動所造成的經營風險有所貢獻。 關鍵字:匯率波動,轉換風險,交易風險,經濟風險,對沖,營運對沖,財務對沖,合約對沖,賽局理論,價格策略,營運綜效,可信的承諾,邊緣策略運用。 Abstract The fluctuation of foreign exchange rate could pose as a risk to not only a transnational enterprise’s financial well-being, but also the enterprise’s competitiveness. The fluctuation of foreign exchange rate could impact one single country, or multiple countries or regions, simultaneously. These risks include translation risk, transaction risk, and economic risk. The risks of translation and transaction can be measured by financial exposure, but economic risk is difficult to quantify because it includes both short term and long term operation factors. The method in which a transnational enterprise employs to manage the impact of foreign exchange rate risks is critical to the successfulness of the enterprise in a highly competitive environment. Usually, most transnational enterprises apply hedging policies operated by their treasury departments in the financial market. However, the effectiveness of hedging is doubtful because it could still have negative results in the short term and it could increase the fixed financial cost of the enterprises. In this research, we would like to discover structured methodologies for a multinational enterprise to effectively manage the uncertainties caused by foreign exchange rate fluctuations and as a result improve its competiveness. Firstly, we analyze how to formulate and implement a price strategy under a declining trend in the exchange rates in a single country as well as multiple countries. This includes 4 key aspects: cost structure, market price, channel management, and government policy. Secondly, we invent strategies of competition for a transnational company to compete with its rivals under the dynamic fluctuations of foreign exchange rates. We apply the principles of game theory in this research to identify the optimal strategy in a competitive environment. This research will provide suggestions of how to establish competition strategies with an advantageous foreign exchange rate and also with a disadvantageous of foreign exchange rate for transnational enterprises. Hopefully, this research can provide useful models for transnational enterprises to manage risks caused by foreign exchange rate fluctuations and consequently improve their competitiveness. Keywords: Foreign Exchange Rate Fluctuation, Translation Risk, Transaction Risk, Economic Risk, Hedging Policy, Operating hedges, Financial Hedges, Contractual Hedges, Game Theory, Price Strategy, Operation Synergy, Creditable Commitment, Brinkmanship. |
URI: | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/53883 |
全文授權: | 有償授權 |
顯示於系所單位: | 國際企業管理組 |
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