同盟的形成與變遷：冷戰後美日同盟與美韓同盟的中國因素比較分析

Abstract

冷戰結束後，「中國崛起」與「權力移轉」成為國際關係中最受關注的議題，在這個背景下，「中國因素」便成為美日、美韓同盟與東北亞秩序變遷的首要變項。本文希望探討與比較「中國因素」對於美日、美韓同盟發展的影響，同時了解隨著中國的崛起，美日同盟與美韓同盟的合作緊密程度是否會有所變化。 本研究的中國因素，主要是希望從物質因素與非物質因素兩個面向進行討論與分析，其中物質因素包含地緣政治因素、軍事安全與經濟因素，非物質因素則是希望從意識形態與歷史記憶，以及國內民意的變化兩個角度切入。 本研究亦依循過去的同盟理論基礎上，建立一套觀察同盟變遷的指標，從義務承擔、同盟信任度及民意對於同盟的評價三大指標來評估同盟的強化或弱化程度。本研究從冷戰後，並以領導人的任期作為觀察時期的切割，分別觀察中國因素對於同盟變遷的影響。 研究後可以發現，兩個同盟中在冷戰後仍存在著霸權領導，美國給予美日和美韓同盟強而有力的安全承諾以維持同盟關係。美日同盟對於中國的威脅認知較為接近，美日同盟的角色與目標比較傾向共同制衡中國；而美韓同盟則傾向與中國合作解決北韓問題，對於中國的威脅認知並不完全相同的情況下，美韓同盟仍然可以持續存在，但是對於同盟的信任度卻產生影響。然而，從意識形態的團結性來看，因為日本、南韓與美國享有共同的政治體制與價值，使得成員國把同盟視為是一個更大的政治共同體，他們無法想像同盟瓦解的情形。 整體而言，美日與美韓同盟在不同事件或者是中國因素的影響下，同盟的發展與狀態確實會發生改變，但是也因為同盟維繫的因素堅定的存在著，使得美日與美韓同盟短期而言並不會因為冷戰結束或者是中國崛起而瓦解。

After the Cold War, the rise of China and the power transition became the most important issues in the international relations. In this background, China factor thus became the most important variable on the evolution of the U.S. Alliances in the Northeast Asia. Therefore, in this thesis, I want to discuss and compare the influence of China rising on the US-Japan alliance and US-ROK alliance. I tried to analyze the China factor that influenced the evolution of alliances from the aspect of the geographic politics, military factor, economic factor, ideology and the public opinion. Based on the alliance theory, I found out some points to observe and evaluate the evolution of alliances. The key points are burden sharing, reliance and trust of the alliances, and the public opinion to the alliances. From those points, we could try to evaluate the strength of the alliances. After the analysis, we could find out that the U.S. still gave a strong promise to secure the existence of the alliances. The U.S. and Japan shared the closed perception of threat to China, so their goals tend to contain China’s rising. However, the ROK tends to cooperate with China to solve the crisis of North Korea. So we can understand that the US-ROK alliance is not like US-Japan alliance becoming so closing. However, the U.S., Japan and ROK share the same political system and value, so the alliances could keep going. They can’t imagine the collapse of the alliances. All in all, the US-Japan and US-ROK alliance will be indeed affected by the China Rising, however, the alliances will not collapse in the short run.