2010-2015年中國城鎮住房價格的決定因素

Abstract

本文團繞「中國城鎮住房價格的決定因素」，提出三個問題：中國住房體系及調控政策是什麼？中國城市在地理、人口、經濟，以及行政級別分異下，城市住房價格的決定因素是什麼？ 2010-2015年這五年的中央政府的房價調控政策，對於住房價格是否構成影響（衝擊）？為回答這些問題，本文從政策整理、模型建構及實證分析三個方面進行解答。 政策整理方面，本文整理了中國住房體系及調控政策，並結合南開大學和天津社科院2013年流動人口管理項目資料，得出目前中國的保障房體系出現快速成長、機制複雜、管理缺失等問題，需加強統計資料收集，盡快推進廉租房和公租房並軌，以及取消戶籍制度限制。同時發現中央政府調控住房依對象呈現分異性：對地方政府偏好使用土地管制及保障房供給要求；而對個人偏好使用與貨幣、稅收、戶籍管制之措施；對企業則偏好金融管制，但調控力相對有限。本文亦討論中國住房市場結構中因城市行政級別體系和落戶政策之分異性形成的「政府-企業」聯合賣方市場。 模型建構方面，本文設定了一個由企業和政府作為聯合賣方的住房市場，發現: (1)若個人購自住房，則首付金額增加、首付比例提升、住房貸款利率提高皆會降低買房人之購房動機；若個人投資買房，則類同個人購自住房的情形下，亦會受城市特徵價格，以及特徵價格波動率影響。而其他資本市場收益率的提高對於投資買房有抑制作用。(2)城市住房價格波動指數和政府預算內財政收入來源、城市特徵價格、土地剩餘量，以及企業操作成本呈現負相關，同時與個人首付額度、每月還貸款金額、以及住房市場景氣度呈現正相關。 實證分析方面，本文用CREIS 2010年橫截面資料分析中國96個城市住房特徵價格的區域差異性，采用新區域切分方法，對區域中心城市/非區域中心城市、東南沿海城市/非東南沿海城市、北部沿海/南部內陸城市和非北部沿海/南部內陸城市，以及北方內陸城市/非北方內陸城市作比較，得出城鎮人均所得、教育因素、城區建成率可以較好解釋中國城市住房價格分異性。並用時間序列資料采VAR方法分析了在考慮調整存款準備金率及貸款利率的條件下，中央政府限購限貸政策對抽樣5城市住房價格干預的有效性，得出既有的貨幣及限購限貸政策對住房價格的衝擊有限，中央政府很難用統一的調控方法調節全國住房市場。

This paper investiges the determinants of Chinese urban housing prices, which is divided into three subproblems: What is the Chinese housing systems and the regulation policies for Chinese real estate market? Due to geographical, demographic and Adminstrational Ranking heterogeneities, what are the determinants of urban housing prices? Do the control policies from central governments have the effects of stabilize Chinese housing prices During the five years between 2010 and 2015? This paper answers these questions from three perspectives: Policies reviews, modeling procedures and empirical analysis. First we review the Chinese housing systems and the regulation policies for Chinese real estate market, and analysis the empirical data of Floating Population Survey by Nankai University and Tianjin Academy of Social Sciences (2013). We find that the Chinese housing systems exist problems such as rapid growth, complex mechanism, and management defect, etc. The solutions for these problems mentioned above are collecting more detail data, accomplishing the low-rent housing and public housing combination, and cancelling the limit of Hukou system. We also find the differences of central government housing price control methods for different subjects: central government may prefer to use land control and public housing construction requirements for local governments; use monetary and tax policies and hukou restrictions for individuals; use financial limit for firms which is relatively limited effects. Then we discuss the mechanism of local government-firm cooperative markets due to the difference of the urban administrative level system and settle down policies. Second we set a model which is a local government-firm cooperative market, and we discover that if individuals perchase houses for principle residence, then the rise of down payment, the ratio of down payment, and mortgage rate will decline individuals’ incentives to perchase houses; if individuals perchase for investment purposes, then the yields of other capital markets will inhibit the perchasing incentives in addition to the effects which are the same as for principle residence. And the inflation of housing hedonic prices indcies is negative related to city budget revenue, city hedonic price and city available land area, and positive related to individual down payment, monthly mortgage payment, and the trading condition of housing market. Finally we use CREIS 2010 data to analysis the regional heterogeneities of housing prices of 96 cities in China, which we develop a new method deviding the mainland China area into regional cities/non-regional cities according to China urban systems, and 3 regions according to geographical, demographic and economic heterogeneities: South-East-Coastal (S.E.C.) Cities/Non-S.E.C. Cities; North-Coatsal & South-Inland (N.C.&S.I.) Cities/Non-N.C.&S.I. Cities, and North-Inland-Cities (N.I.C.)/ Non-N.I.C. Cities. We made comparative analysis and find that City residents’ income, educational factors, constructal rate for downtown area can better explain the heterogeneities of Chinese cities housing prices. We also use VAR methods and time series data of 5 sampled cities to analysis the housing prices interventive effectiveness of central governments, considering the deposit-reserve ratio (RRR), mortagage rates, and the purchase and credit limitation. Then we get the conclusion that the exist monetary policies and the purchase and credit limitation have little impacts on housing prices, and it’s hard for central government to use a universal control strategy to adjust the nationwide housing market.