客船在週期性運動狀況下的逃生出口規劃及模擬

Abstract

海上人命安全一直以來為眾人所重視的議題,IMO 訂定客船逃生疏散分析的 相關規範,使客船在設計階段必須執行模擬分析逃生路徑及人員撤離安全性。由 於海上交通除了運輸貨物之外,近年來海上觀光諸如大型郵輪再度興起,因此在 緊急狀況下乘客如何更有效率地安全逃生便是設計上的一大考量。 本文利用逃生模擬軟體 AENEAS 進行客船之人員逃生模擬及分析,由於參考 船不同出口有不一樣的人數限制,因此在規劃逃生路徑指派艙間至目標出口時, 以其路徑勢能做為評分的依據,並使用貪婪演算法進行運算,分配不同艙間乘客 的逃生出口及路徑,首先以限制出口人數方式分派艙間至適合出口,接著考慮人 員的群體互動行為也運用對應出口位置設計之對稱性,運用防止交錯行為的方式 分配艙間至出口進行模擬。在分析逃生時間方面,首先考慮在靜水情況之下的模 擬, 再進行船體規則運動下的逃生模擬,以觀察在環境條件較嚴苛的情況。模擬 時的假設條件均依照國際海事組織所訂定的「新建造與現成客船疏散分析指導方 針」。模擬結果顯示,目前的路徑規劃所需要的逃生時間符合疏散分析指導方針 所訂定的規範,雖然週期性運動比靜水狀況下需要更長的逃生時間,不過也在安 全範圍之內,而貪婪演算法的分配出口方法之中,限制出口人數方式比較適用於 局部艙間逃生的特殊情況,防止交錯行為的分配出口方法比較適用於整體艙間的 逃生情況。 後續研究進行的方向可考慮船舶破損狀況下的逃生模擬,由於船身的傾斜程 度隨時間變化越趨不利於乘客逃生,以此為逃生時間限制或許比疏散分析指南更 為嚴苛,將能更貼近船難發生的情況。另外將路徑規劃之演算法加以改良,以達 到出口使用率平衡分配,降低出口前的擁塞情形,以縮短逃生時間,亦是值得繼 續探究的課題。

Safety of life at Sea has been emphasized for a long while. Since International Maritime Organization published regulation referring to evacuation analysis for passenger ship, it is essential to implement simulation about egress route distribution and safety of passengers. Although ships are for carrying goods mainly, maritime tourism has sprung up recently such as luxury cruises, as the result, it becomes more and more important to arrange egress route distribution that leads to efficient evacuation for passengers under emergency conditions. AENEAS was used for the following simulation about evacuation and analysis for passenger ship. Due to the limit of each exit, it is essential to assign specific rooms to appropriate exit. In this case, potential is the key to determine the exit which each room prefer to go, furthermore, Greedy Algorithm is applied to reach the result. The other way to assign exit is taking account of conflict of agents. After assigning rooms to each exit and distributing egress routes among all cabins, simulation was implemented under static condition. Afterwards, simulation under periodical ship motion was implemented to observe what happens when the environment became more dangerous for passengers. The assumption and environmental parameters all correspond to “Guidelines for Evacuation Analysis for New and Existing Passenger Ships”. It seemed that the result of simulation comply with the guideline mentioned which means that the current egress route distribution and total travel time are literally proper. Although the condition with periodical ship motion takes more travel time than static condition, it still comply with the guideline. And the results show that restricted capacity for exits of Greedy Algorithm is more suitable to evacuation simulation of partial area, on the other hand, assign exit by considering conflict of agents is more proper to simulation of all passenger decks. In the future, ship damage condition could be considered for further evacuation simulation. When ship is tilting, as freeboard immersed and water flowing into cabins, the general environment becomes more harmful for passengers. In this way the evacuation time should be less and condition becomes more dangerous than the guidelines published by IMO, it will reflect the reality of shipwrecks.