誰偷了我的薪水

Abstract

近年來台灣大學畢業生薪資停留在22K (二萬二千元) 的普遍現象, 讓人不自覺想知道, 是誰偷了他們的薪水。本論文以此為研究宗旨, 用台灣1982至2011年前後三十年由行政院主計總處調查的「家庭收支調查」薪資資料, 分析台灣在這三十年的薪資差異。 在實證上, 本文以多種型式表現薪資差異, 包括工資成長率､工資成長率離差､工資指數成長､工資指數成長離差等四種。以成長率與指數成長分別衡量工資變化的比率與數量, 離差衡量不均度的變化。解釋變數有國內生產毛額 (GDP) 成長率､物價成長率與職務別虛擬變數等, 分析工資變化受總體經濟因素或職務別之影響。為了探討GDP, 哪一項對薪資有較大的影響力, 本文也將GDP還原為民間消費､投資､政府消費與淨出口等四項為解釋變數, 並對各項結果做因果檢定。另外, 在我們分析的三十年台灣經濟發展過程中, 明顯有經濟結構轉變, 因此本文也以Chow Test檢定轉變年份, 並加入解釋變數。最後, 全球化影響了世界各國的所得分配, 因此我們以貿易依存度作為全球化程度的替代變數, 分析其與工資之間的關係。對使用的所有變數, 本文也做了LLC Test與IPS Test兩種Panel Data的單根檢定，確認使用的時間序列資料為定態。 本文實證結果顯示, 1995年台灣由高成長階段進入低成長階段。台灣的薪資差異, 主要來源於不同職務別工資在高成長時期的差異累積。在這個時期, 政府消費支出增加會壓抑工資成長, 但也縮小職務別工資差異; 到低成長階段後, 政府支出效果剛好相反。經濟低成長階段, 投資增加能在不影響工資不均度下, 提昇工資。與一般人認為全球化導致工資差異擴大的觀點相左, 低成長時期經理人員與一般勞工的工資差異擴散速度反而趨緩, 專業人員與一般勞工的工資差距甚至有收斂現象。在低成長時間, 整體工資停滯且工資差異縮小, 但所得又有增加, 可以合理推測資本所得佔所得份額提升, 這才應該是薪資不漲的原兇, 且導致貧富差距擴大。 根據以上實證結果, 解決台灣工資停滯問題, 重點應在提高專業人員工資上著手。由於投資增加對工資成長最有助益, 並考慮到資本所得份額不斷擴大, 台灣應就制度面改革, 引導投資, 發展知識密集產業, 增加專業人員的勞動需求, 並帶動社會整理工資的提升。

In recent years, 22K (twenty-two thousand NT dollars) college graduates salary prevailing in Taiwan worries the public and leads us to be curious about who stole their salaries. This thesis aims to investigate this issue based on data from 'Family Income and Expenditure Survey' conducted by the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan, between 1982 and 2011. Empirically, various forms of wages are calculated and used as the dependent variable, including wages’ growth rate, the deviation of the growth rates, the increment of wage index, and the deviation of the increment. GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth rate, inflation rate, and dummy variables stand for occupations are used as explanatory variables. In order to examine which parts of GDP are more influential, we also decompose GDP into consumption, investment, government spending and net exports as explanatory variables, and applies the causality test to the results. A structural change obviously existed over the period in our study was verified by Chow Test and added to the regressions. Trade dependency ratio was used to stand for globalization, which is widely recognized as a key factor of increasing income inequality worldwide, to test its influence on wages in Taiwan. Finally, LLC Test and IPS Test were applied to our Panel Data and found them are all stationary. Empirical results show that the year of 1995 transferred Taiwan from high-speed gross to low ones. Occupational wage gaps in Taiwan were mainly accumulated during the high-speed gross period while government spending depressed wages’ gross as well as wage gap. The government spending went into opposite effects in the low-speed gross period, but investment play a role to improve wages without broadening wage inequality. To one’s surprise, globalization has slowed down the increment of wage gap between managers and general workers own during the low-speed growth period, and even converge the wage gap between professionals and general workers. The facts that wages stagnated and wage gap narrowed but GDP grew drive us to speculate that capital share booming is the key factor of the phenomenon of 22K college graduate salary. Based on our empirical study, to resolve Taiwan’s wage issue, government policies should stimulate investment, especially in knowledge-intensive industries, in order to increase the demand for professionals which, with some necessary system reform, will increase professional salaries as well as wages in general.