舞臺劇產業中訂價對票房之影響

Abstract

在娛樂產業裡，業者透過賣票來販售體驗，舞台劇表演即是生活中常見的一個例子。他們在獲益前便已投入龐大的資金，並透過多次的售票演出來賺取報酬。由於在一場座位有限的演出中，多賣出一個座位所需要付出的邊際成本相對很小，因此演出時若有空位則可視為損失。為了求取獲益最大化，他們最為關心的就是如何在有限資源（如時間、有限座位）下回收最佳的報酬。這樣的議題屬於營收管理的範疇，即在對需求有一定程度的了解下，透過差別訂價的概念，以最有效益的方式分配資源，目的是達到獲利的最大化。 明顯地，在一個演出空間中存在座位好壞的差別。而過去的研究與理論證實，業者可以透過這個差別來調整座位等級的配置以及各等級的價格來獲取更高的利潤。在舞台劇產業中，如此的策略一直有在被執行，但這些決策大多仍是依靠是專業人士的經驗與直覺去決定的。我們相信有系統的科學方法能夠有效的提升他們面臨的不確定性，並且可以有依據的提供他們決策意見，並期望能透過數據研究及分析去支援他們的定價決策。 在這份研究中，我們取得台灣的一個知名兒童劇團最近六年的交易資訊。在將資料加以整理過後，利用線性迴歸模型和數據分析方法找出對銷售數量有顯著影響的環境因子，並分析定價策略上的調動對銷售數量的影響，進而了解台灣區的市場對兒童劇團的需求。另外，我們也將需求由低價到高價區隔為三個群組進行數據分析，找出不同客群對於票價與壅塞的敏感程度，提供分析結果與決策建議給相關業者做為參考。

In the entertainment industry, firms deliver experiences to their customers by selling tickets. Theatrical plays is an example in common. Typically, the marginal cost for selling one more ticket is significantly lower than the sunk investment. Therefore, leaving a seat empty in a performance may be considered as a loss on sale. What a firm is how to make the pricing and related decisions under limited sources (i.e., time, limited seats, etc.) in order to maximize the expected profit. The solution lies in the field of revenue management. Obviously, there are seats with different quality levels in a performance space. Moreover, from the past experience, implementing price discrimination on those seats can generate more profit. However, most of the decisions are still only based on experts' experiences and intuitions, and these decisions may be improved by implementing data analysis methods. It is quite important for them to adopt scientific methods to better price tickets and manage the revenue. In this thesis, an empirical study is conducted for investigating the impact of prices and other factors on sales quantity in the theater industry. We obtain the sales data from a leading theater company in Taiwan. We separate the demands into three price levels to study the different patterns on ticket prices between each other. With several regression models and statistical techniques, analysis results and suggestions for the pricing and scheduling decisions are provided.