台灣紡織品出口之實證分析

Abstract

近十年來，紡織業仍為帶動台灣經濟發展以及創造外匯收入的重要產業。以2014年為例，台灣紡織產業出口額為116.3億美元，進口額為33.8億美元，貿易順差達83.5億美元，為台灣第四大貿易順差產業。以過去十年來看，紡織成衣業出口依存度平均達 77%，可看出台灣紡織業為高度出口導向的產業，也顯示紡織出口為衡量台灣紡織業發展之重要指標。 本文將台灣紡織品出口函數以匯率、中油浮動油價、棉花價格、紡織品外銷訂單海外生產比、出口物價指數與美國景氣綜合領先指標等變數做解釋，使用資料樣本期間為2002年1月至2015年1月，共157個觀察值，首先以單根檢定確認各變數取對數並經一階差分後為定態數列後，建立變數間向量自我迴歸模型(Vector Autoregression model)觀察出口與各變數落後期之相關性，由衝擊反應函數了解外生衝擊對出口的影響，並以Granger因果關係檢定變數間是否存在領先(Granger cause)、落後、互相領先，或兩者無任何關係，最後將向量自我迴歸模型中與當期出口呈現顯著之變數作為多元迴歸模型解釋變數，建立多元迴歸模型探討影響台灣紡織品出口的因素。研究結果顯示台灣當期紡織品出口受本身過去兩期負向影響，落後一期人民幣兌新台幣匯率與出口呈現負向關係，落後一期中油浮動油價與當期紡織品出口呈正向關係，落後一期紡織品外銷訂單海外生產比與當期紡織品出口呈負向關係，而台灣紡織品出口物價指數的落後一期與當期紡織品出口具正向關係。

Over the past decade, the textile industry still makes a great contribution to economic development and foreign exchange earnings in Taiwan. In 2014, textiles export reached to $11.57 billion, and the trade surplus amounted to $8.15 billion which is the fourth largest trade surplus industry in Taiwan. The textiles export dependence up to 77% on average over the decade, it shows Taiwan's textile industry is highly export-oriented. So, the textiles export is an important indicator to evaluate the development of textile industry in Taiwan. To figure out the factors for Taiwan's textiles export, we select exchange rate, oil prices, cotton prices, overseas production ratio, the export price index, and composite leading indicators of the US economy as explanatory variables. From January 2002 to January 2015, there are 157 observations. First, we use unit root test to ensure all the series used in regression analysis are stationary. Then, we create the vector autoregression(VAR) model to analyze how explanatory variables affect textiles export and use impulse response function to figure out the response of textiles export to the exogenous shock of another variables. Granger causality test is also used to determine whether a time series is useful in forecasting another. Eventually, we use the statistically significant variables in multiple regression analysis to investigate the impact factors for textiles export. The conclusion of this research shows that the Taiwan's textiles export is affected by “two lags of itself”, “first lag of RMB against the Taiwan Dollar exchange rate”, “first lag of oil prices”, “first lag of overseas production ratio” and “first lag of export price index”.