台灣人口結構及所得來源對家庭儲蓄率的影響

Abstract

國民儲蓄包括家庭、企業及政府儲蓄，根據行政院主計總處資料，1990年代家庭儲蓄約占國民儲蓄淨額七成，企業儲蓄僅約占三成，目前企業儲蓄已攀升至六成，家庭儲蓄卻降至四成以下。企業儲蓄與家庭儲蓄之消長，顯示企業之投資行為與家庭之消費與儲蓄行為已明顯改變。 本文的目的在探討1990年代中期以後，台灣家庭儲蓄率一路滑落的現象，是否與勞動人口結構的改變及各種所得來源的變化相關。許多國外學者針對如日本、韓國、澳大利亞等國家的研究，發現人口結構老化對儲蓄率的確會造成一定程度的影響。本文進一步以台灣地區的家戶為單位，自1976年至2014年按戶長年齡組別的人口結構及可支配所得、受僱人員報酬、財產所得收入、移轉所得的變化，以及儲蓄率變動的資料，利用普通最小平方法 (Ordinary Least Squares) 進行迴歸實證分析。 實證結果顯示，移轉所得平緩的成長率使儲蓄率降低；其他各類所得成長率下滑使得儲蓄率亦逐步滑落。再者，家戶所得來源的組成中，移轉所得與財產所得收入相對於受僱人員報酬比例的提高，皆使得儲蓄率下降。

National Saving includes household, corporate and government saving. According to the data from Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, household savings took up 70% out of National Saving and only 30% from corporates in 1990. Nevertheless corporate saving has currently risen to 60% versus 40% of household saving. This indicates that Taiwan National Saving has been significantly shifted from household sector to corporate sector. The purpose of this thesis is to explore factors that cause the sign of Taiwan household saving reducing in Taiwan after the mid-1990s, whether it is connected with demographic structure change and income resources change. Foreign scholarships aimed at Japan, Korea and Australia societies showed that aging population does affect saving level. By taking “household” in Taiwan, this empirical study conducts regression analysis by using Ordinary Least Squares Method to verify the correlation between change of demographic structure, disposable income, compensation of employees, property income and transfer receipts on saving rate from 1976 to 2014. The empirical findings show that dropping saving rate is resulted from a gently rising growth rate of transfer receipts and a falling growth rate of other resources income. Further, high proportion of transfer receipts and property income to employees’ compensation within a household also lower the saving rate.