從神奇金錢製造機到華爾街2015年最大夢靨： SunEdison個案研究

Abstract

全球太陽能產業自2003年開始起步發展，2008年全球金融海嘯襲擊，促使第一波大規模產業重整，亦使太陽能發電成本隨之倍數下降。2009年以後呈現全球安裝量大跳躍時期，整體產業年複合成長率達20%以上。 本研究以SunEdison公司為個案研究(Case Study)對象。探討其如何因洞悉產業商業機會以及商業模式崛起而最後又是如何衰落。SunEdison前身是美國50年老字號之半導體上游原料製造公司MEMC，向來以技術領先聞名業界。2009年隨著新執行長Mr. Ahmad R. Chatila到任，SunEdison察覺此一正在熱切發展中的太陽能電站開發與運營市場機會，遂開始大幅向半導體以外的領域擴張版圖。其透過原本半導體上游技術優勢進入了太陽能上游原料製造領域，再透過2009年購併北美著名太陽能電站開發商SunEdison迅速跨足了太陽能下游端之太陽能系統電站開發與整合市場區塊。其後進行公司更名、分割半導體事業等轉型並開始進行大規模之太陽能及風能電站併購，使公司迅速成為全球第一大太陽能系統開發與營運商。 在進行大規模之太陽能及風能電站併購的同時，SunEdison提出太陽能產業前所未聞之商業模式YieldCo、Warehouse Facility等財務模式創新，持續創造話題並引領產業風潮，使公司股價一路攀升且公司資金也如活水源源不絕。然而就在公司股價隨著不斷的新題材與併購於2015年7月創下2009年以來最高點33美元的同時，不到9個月的時間，除了股價大跌99%，SunEdison更在2016年4月提出了破產重整申請。 本研究除了對SunEdison重大併購案作分析說明外，同時透過探討SunEdison主要財務績效指標、營運表現分析SunEdison營運模式為何失敗。本研究也闡述YieldCo商業模式如何能永續經營。 本研究經探討分析後認為SunEdison係在1.作繭自縛的90%公司成長過度承諾；2. 現金流無法支應其所追求之高速擴張YieldCo模式；3.瘋狂併購所需的巨額現金流動性需求與管理失序; 4.未能對營運績效進行有效管理造成持續漏水的營運模式以及貸款成本持續上升、股價持續下跌使資本成本大幅上升等多重因素加疊下迅速從雲端摔落。 本研究分析後提出YieldCo商業模式得以永續經營的關鍵因素包括: 1.新購電站資產之資產報酬率(ROA)須大於資本成本(Cost of Capital); 2.具備穩定營運現金流可吸收20年或20年以上資本成本潛在提高帶來之流動性風險。本研究並以比較公司NRG以及NRG Yield實際運作為例，說明開發商附加YieldCo模式得以持續運行之參考。

The Global Solar Industry began taking off since 2003. The 2008 global financial tsunami, prompting the first wave of large-scale industrial restructuring, also resulted in severe decline of solar power cost. The global solar installation entered into a large jump period since 2009, representing a compound annual growth rate of more than 20% to the whole solar industry. This research is based on a Case Study method focusing on SunEdison as the target company. Explore how SunEdison rises due to the insight into the industry business opportunities and the business model and how it finally falls. SunEdison formerly the famous American 50-year-old raw materials of semiconductor manufacturing company MEMC, has always been known for industry-leading technology. With the new CEO Mr. Ahmad R. Chatila arrival in 2009, SunEdison was aware this was an eagerly growing market sector - development and operation of the solar power system. It then began to sharply expand its business scope beyond the field of semiconductors. It firstly entered the solar raw materials segment through its original semiconductor manufacturing technology’s strength, and then through the 2009 acquisition of the famous North American solar system developer SunEdison quickly branched out into the downstream solar system segment, the development and integration of the solar power plant. The company subsequently was renamed, split- off its semiconductor business and began large-scale acquisitions of solar and wind power plants, SunEdison quickly became the world's largest solar system developer and operator. Carrying out large-scale mergers and acquisitions of solar and wind power plants in the meantime, SunEdison presents unheard business models to the solar industry, like YieldCo、Warehouse Facility and other so-called financial innovation, continuing to create topics and lead the industry trends, the company's share price soared and the company's capital kept coming in like running water. However, when the company’s shares with the continuous acquisition of new topics reaches the highest point of US $ 33 in July 2015, the stock fell 99% within less than 9 months, and even worse, the company files for bankruptcy reorganization application in April 2016. In this research, in addition to the analysis of its major acquisitions, we explore through the main financial performance indicators, operational performance of the company to figure out why the SunEdison business model failed. The research also describes how the YieldCo business model could be sustainable. This research is of the opinion that due to: 1.over commitment on 90% company growth rate; 2.cash flow cannot cope with its pursuit of YieldCo rapid expansion model; 3.the large amount cash liquidity needs resulting from the massive acquisitions and disorderly management; 4.failure to effectively manage operation resulting in leaking operation mode. Also in combination with the borrowing costs continuing rise, stock prices continuing fall leads to rising Cost of Capital makes SunEdison fall sharply from the cloud. After analyzing, this research presents the key sustainable factors of YieldCo business model, including: 1.the ROA must be greater than the Cost of Capital on new acquired power plant assets; 2.have a stable operating cash flow to absorb the potential liquidity risks brought by the raise of the Cost of Capital in 20 years or more. This research also studies the actual operation of NRG and NRG Yield to illustrate the vivid operation example of the developer plus YieldCo model.