安倍經濟學的困境與應有的作法

Abstract

1989年12月29日，Nikkei站上歷史高點38957點，熱錢投入房地產，日本房價被一路炒翻天。1990日本土地總價值達到15兆美元，比美國土地資產總價值還多了4倍，當時光東京23個區的房地產總價，號稱可以買下土地面積25倍於日本的美國國土，這就是泡沫。日本政府為了抑制誇張的房價，1990年採取緊縮政策，沒想到修正了房價，卻也戳破了日本當時沒有實質支撐的泡沫經濟。2000年日本人自己寫了一本書，稱之為「失落的十年」。2010年美國人替日本寫了另一本書，稱之為「失落的二十年」。 2012.12日本首相安倍晉三第二次上任後，提出俗稱安倍經濟學的經濟改革政策。安倍經濟學的經濟政策目標包含，脫離通貨緊縮的短期目標及持續經濟成長的中長期目標，實施的政策三支箭內容包括1.大胆的貨幣寬鬆政策2.靈活的財政政策3.喚起民間投資的增長戰略，經濟學家稱之為「安倍三支箭」。 實施已屆滿3年的安倍3支箭，「寬鬆貨幣政策」、「靈活的財政政策」、「增長策略」是否帶動日本景氣復甦 ? 前一年半日圓貶值、股市回升、通縮脫離的確可以給予正面的評價，但關鍵的經濟成長如個人消費回復疲弱 & 正向景氣循環力道不足，依然無法獲得各界的認同。回歸安倍經濟學未竟成功的論點，筆者認為關鍵在於第3箭增長策略結構改革的執行力度。選票考量、反對黨的制肘、經濟學家的批判、地緣政治的領土爭議，再再影響關係結構的改革與門戶開放的程度。無論安倍經濟學是刺激成長?虛晃一招?成敗是非尚未定論，但它至少激起日本國民整體的國家意識，安倍的經濟神話會不會破滅，讓我們拭目以待。

December 29, 1989, a record high on Nikkei station 38957 points, hot money into real estate, Japanese prices were way fried earthshaking. 1990 Japan's total land value of $ 15 trillion, more than the total value of US land assets more than four times the total amount of real estate in Tokyo 23 light district, known as 25 times the land area can be bought in Japan Homeland, which is the bubble . Japanese government in order to suppress exaggerated prices, tightening policy in 1990, did not expect the revised prices, but Japan was also burst the bubble economy without substantial support. In 2000 the Japanese themselves wrote a book called 'lost decade.' 2010 Americans for Japan to write another book, called 'lost two decades.' 2012.12 Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe took office after the second, put forward economic reform policies known as Abe economics. Abenomics economic policy objectives contained, from the long-term goals and short-term objectives of deflation continued economic growth, policy implementation includes three arrows bold monetary easing 1. 2. 3. flexible fiscal policy evoke private investment growth strategy, what economists call 'Abe three arrows.' Implementation expired three years Abe 3 arrows, 'loose monetary policy', 'flexible fiscal policy,' 'growth strategy' if Japan led economic recovery? Yen a year and a half before the devaluation, the stock market rebounded from deflation can indeed positive evaluation, but the key to economic growth, such as inadequate weak personal consumption reply & forward cyclical strength, still unable to gain recognition from all sectors. Regression abenomics unfinished successful argument, I believe that the key lies in the enforcement of the first three arrows growth strategy structural reforms. Ballot considerations, Zhi Zhou opposition, economists critique, geopolitical territorial disputes, amassing affect the degree of reform and open-door relationship structure. Whether abenomics stimulate growth? Feinted? Success or failure of a non-conclusive yet, but at least it stirred the national consciousness of the Japanese whole country, Abe's economic miracle will not burst, let us wait and see.