中華職棒大聯盟選秀成效分析

Abstract

中華職棒大聯盟新人選秀是每年我國體壇最熱門的話題之一，牽動各隊的戰力變化，然國內目前缺乏以量化觀點評估中職選秀的相關研究。本研究旨在分析中職選秀的趨勢變遷與成果，以2013年開放高中生選秀為分界，觀察其前後四年 (2008-2012與2013-2016) 的選秀概況和變化。本研究共分三部分，研究對象2008-2016年的中職選秀球員，第一部分為歷年選秀概況與球員表現，第二、第三部分以自加盟球隊開始連續3年在一軍出賽的球員表現為成績採計範圍，分別用單因子變異數分析與獨立樣本t檢定分析不同背景球員與不同輪次球員的表現差異。研究結果分為以下幾點：1. 近四年選秀之報名與加盟人數均較過去增加，高中生加盟人數約佔整體20%。2. 旅外、大學、高中和業餘球員表現均無顯著差異，但大學生打者和投手的整體數據表現皆有較高中生球員亮眼的趨勢。3. 投手相較打者穩定出賽比例低，且前面輪次穩定出賽比例未全然高於後面輪次。4. 2013~2016年選秀前2輪打者表現優於聯盟平均，而前2輪投手表現落後聯盟平均。由於許多好手高中畢業後或大專時期即投身國外職棒聯盟，導致投手表現不盡理想，凸顯我國有優秀人才外流的問題。建議球團可依球隊需求選擇網羅即戰力或年輕潛力球員，且在選秀前2輪可較放心的投資打者並給予優渥之簽約金。

Chinese Professional Baseball League (CPBL) Draft is one of the most popular topics in Taiwan sports every year, which affects the changes in the strength of each team. However, there is currently a lack of relevant research on evaluating CPBL Draft from a quantitative perspective. This study analyzes the trend and achievements of the CPBL draft, taking the high school students' draft as the boundary and observing the draft situation and changes of the four years before and after it (2008-2012, 2013-2016). This research is divided into three parts, and the research object is the 2008-2016 draft players. The first part is the overview of drafts and player performance over the years. The second and third parts are the performance of players who have played in the first team for three consecutive years since joining the team, using One-way ANOVA and Independent Sample t test to analyze the performance differences of players from different backgrounds and draft rounds. The results are divided into the following points: 1. In the past four years, both the number of joining in the daft and signing the contract with the team have increased compared with the past, and the number of high school players joining has accounted for about 20% of the overall. 2. There was no significant difference in the performance of foeign players, colledge players, high school players and amateur players, but the overall data of college players showed the better performance than high school players. 3. The pitcher's performance is more difficult to be predicted than the hitter’s, and the league has shown a phenomenon of hitter-dominating. 4. In the 2013~2016 draft, the top two rounds of hitters performed better than the league average, and the first two rounds of pitchers fell behind the league average, which showing the phenomenon of brain drain. It is recommended that the team can choose to recruit players with immediate strength or young potential according to the needs of the team, and can confidently invest in hitters in the first two rounds of the draft and give a generous signing bonus.