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標題: | 天氣變化對零售業銷售業績之影響
─以新北市深坑區農會生鮮超市為例 The Impact of Weather Changes on the Retail Sales ─ A Case Study of New Taipei City Shenkeng Farmers?Association supermarkets |
作者: | Shun-Ta Chang 張順達 |
指導教授: | 張宏浩(Hung-Hao Chang) |
共同指導教授: | 王俊豪(Jiun-Hao Wang) |
關鍵字: | 天氣,零售業,農會超市,銷售業績,邊際效果, weather,retail,supermarkets of farmers association,sales performance,marginal effect, |
出版年 : | 2016 |
學位: | 碩士 |
摘要: | 天氣因素在整體經濟環境中扮演著重要角色,其不僅影響商業活動及農產品之供應,對零售業銷售狀況及消費者購買行為亦有所影響。本研究探討天氣因素對零售業銷售業績與對消費者購買行為之影響,實證分析以新北市深坑區農會生鮮超市之營業據數統計資料為主,並將農會超市促銷活動、颱風來襲警報及周休假日等可能影響消費者購買行為之因素列為控制變數,同時探討消費者在控制其他影響因素後,天氣變化是否影響超市營業業績變化與消費者購買行為。藉此實證分析零售市場受天氣變數影響之關連性及程度,研究結果可提供零售業者參考便於掌握消費者各項需求,亦期能提供予相關業者未來經營零售業及顧客服務之方向與建議。
本文之實證分析結果指出,天氣變化對農會超市銷售業績及消費者購買行為有顯著影響,主要研究發現摘要如下:除了「最大風速」變化不會影響農會超市銷售業績外,其他四個天氣變數「平均日溫」、「降雨量」、「紫外線指數」及「酷熱指數」均會對農會超市之銷售業績造成不同程度之影響。在天氣變數中以「降雨量」對農會超市之總體業額及各類商品部門銷售均呈現負向顯著影響,此結果顯示下雨天會導致農會超市銷售業績明顯下降。另外,「颱風來襲」、「促銷檔期」、「周休假期」等外部因子也均會對農會超市各類商品銷售業績造成不同程度之影響;其中,農會超市推出的「促銷活動」對總體業額及各類商品部門銷售業績均呈現正向顯著影響; 「周休假日」對超市總體及各類商品業績銷售則以呈現負向顯著影響居多;另在天氣因素對農會特定商品被消費之影響性實證結果發現:農會超市舉辦的「促銷活動」所獲得之邊際效果為最大,證實農會超市所舉辦商品促銷活動檔期能達到刺激顧客上門購物消費之效果,其邊際效果甚至大於天氣因素對農會超市銷售業績之影響性。 It has been documented that weather plays a vital role in economic environment. Weather can not only influence commercial activities and agricultural supplies, but also can be associated with retail sales and the decisions of consumers’ purchase. This thesiss addresses the issue on the impact of weather condition on consumers’ purchase behavior and retail sales, using the administrative record in supermarket sales of the Farmers Association in Shenkeng district in New Taipei city. We control for factors including the promotion, typhoon alert and dates of sales that are possiblely associated with consumers’ purchase behavior. After controlling for these factors, we aim to figure out whether or not climate change affects supermarkets’ sales and consumers’ purchase. The study can provide a case study for retailers to predominate consumers’ needs, and also give related industries suggestions on retail business operation. Our empirical results show that climate change has a significant relationship with consumers’ purchases and retail sales. Primary findings are summarized as follows. Our results reveal that wind speed doesn’t influence retail sales performance. In constrast, other climate factors inclduing the average day temperature, rainfall, heat index, have different level of influence on supermarket sales. Among these significant factors, the magnitude of the effect by rainfall is the largest which is negatively correlated with sales in all kinds of commodities sector. Moreover, some other variables such as typhoons, promotional flights, holidays, also influence supermarket sales in various kinds of commodities. It is of note that promotions by markets have positive effects to both overall turnover and sales in all of the selected commodities. Also, weekend days tend to have negative effects to supermarket overall and sales in all of the selected commodities. |
URI: | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/50034 |
DOI: | 10.6342/NTU201601813 |
全文授權: | 有償授權 |
顯示於系所單位: | 農業經濟學系 |
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