請用此 Handle URI 來引用此文件:
http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/49970
完整後設資料紀錄
DC 欄位 | 值 | 語言 |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.advisor | 林先和(Hsien-Ho Lin) | |
dc.contributor.author | Chih-Hui Wang | en |
dc.contributor.author | 王稚慧 | zh_TW |
dc.date.accessioned | 2021-06-15T12:26:59Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2018-08-26 | |
dc.date.copyright | 2016-08-26 | |
dc.date.issued | 2016 | |
dc.date.submitted | 2016-08-09 | |
dc.identifier.citation | 1. WHO, Global Tuberculosis Report 2015. 2015: Geneva, Switzerland.
2. WHO, Global strategy and targets for tuberculosis prevention, care and control after 2015. 2013. 3. Chan, P.C., L.M. Huang, and H.S. Kuo, Is neonatal Bacillus Calmette-Guerin vaccination protective in Taiwan? J Formos Med Assoc, 2008. 107(3): p. 195-7. 4. Chiang, C.Y., et al., The impact of national health insurance on the notification of tuberculosis in Taiwan. Int J Tuberc Lung Dis, 2002. 6(11): p. 974-9. 5. 行政院衛生署, 結核病十年減半全民動員計畫. 2006. 6. 行政院衛生福利部, 我國加入 WHO 2035 消除結核第一期計畫. 2015. 7. Su-Hua Huang, C.-B.H., Kwei-Feng Wang, Shiang-Lin Yang, Yen-Fang Huang, Chang-Hsun Chan, Progress and Implementation of Surveillance of Directly Observed Treatment, Short-Course (DOTS) for Tuberculosis in Taiwan Taiwan Epidemiol Bull 2014. 30(5): p. 92-100. 8. Lonnroth, K., et al., Drivers of tuberculosis epidemics: the role of risk factors and social determinants. Soc Sci Med, 2009. 68(12): p. 2240-6. 9. Jeon, C.Y. and M.B. Murray, Diabetes mellitus increases the risk of active tuberculosis: a systematic review of 13 observational studies. PLoS Med, 2008. 5(7): p. e152. 10. Lin, H.H., M. Ezzati, and M. Murray, Tobacco smoke, indoor air pollution and tuberculosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis. PLoS Med, 2007. 4(1): p. e20. 11. Lonnroth, K., et al., A consistent log-linear relationship between tuberculosis incidence and body mass index. Int J Epidemiol, 2010. 39(1): p. 149-55. 12. Lonnroth, K., et al., Alcohol use as a risk factor for tuberculosis - a systematic review. BMC Public Health, 2008. 8: p. 289. 13. Baker, M.A., et al., The impact of diabetes on tuberculosis treatment outcomes: a systematic review. BMC Med, 2011. 9: p. 81. 14. Cayla, J.A., et al., Current status of treatment completion and fatality among tuberculosis patients in Spain. Int J Tuberc Lung Dis, 2004. 8(4): p. 458-64. 15. Gellert, C., B. Schottker, and H. Brenner, Smoking and all-cause mortality in older people: systematic review and meta-analysis. Arch Intern Med, 2012. 172(11): p. 837-44. 16. Jayasekara, H., et al., Alcohol consumption over time and risk of death: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Am J Epidemiol, 2014. 179(9): p. 1049-59. 17. Kattan, J.A., L.E. Sosa, and M.N. Lobato, Tuberculosis mortality: death from a curable disease, Connecticut, 2007-2009. Int J Tuberc Lung Dis, 2012. 16(12): p. 1657-62. 18. Mathew, T.A., et al., Causes of death during tuberculosis treatment in Tomsk Oblast, Russia. Int J Tuberc Lung Dis, 2006. 10(8): p. 857-63. 19. Nguyen, L.T., et al., Mortality before or during treatment among tuberculosis patients in North Carolina, 1993-2003. Int J Tuberc Lung Dis, 2011. 15(2): p. 257-62, i. 20. Pednekar, M.S., et al., Association of body mass index with all-cause and cause-specific mortality: findings from a prospective cohort study in Mumbai (Bombay), India. Int J Epidemiol, 2008. 37(3): p. 524-35. 21. Roglic, G., et al., The burden of mortality attributable to diabetes: realistic estimates for the year 2000. Diabetes Care, 2005. 28(9): p. 2130-5. 22. Volkmann, T., et al., Tuberculosis and excess alcohol use in the United States, 1997-2012. Int J Tuberc Lung Dis, 2015. 19(1): p. 111-9. 23. Zachariah, R., et al., Moderate to severe malnutrition in patients with tuberculosis is a risk factor associated with early death. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg, 2002. 96(3): p. 291-4. 24. United Nations. Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development Seventieth session of the General Assembly of the United Nations 2015 [cited 2016 Aprial, 14]; Available from: http://www.un.org/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=A/RES/70/1&Lang=E. 25. Lonnroth, K. and M. Raviglione, The WHO's new End TB Strategy in the post-2015 era of the Sustainable Development Goals. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg, 2016. 110(3): p. 148-50. 26. Lonnroth, K. and M. Raviglione, Global epidemiology of tuberculosis: prospects for control. Semin Respir Crit Care Med, 2008. 29(5): p. 481-91. 27. Dye, C., et al., Nutrition, diabetes and tuberculosis in the epidemiological transition. PLoS One, 2011. 6(6): p. e21161. 28. Odone, A., et al., The effect of diabetes and undernutrition trends on reaching 2035 global tuberculosis targets. Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol, 2014. 2(9): p. 754-64. 29. Murray, M., O. Oxlade, and H.H. Lin, Modeling social, environmental and biological determinants of tuberculosis. Int J Tuberc Lung Dis, 2011. 15 Suppl 2: p. S64-70. 30. Basu, S., et al., Projected effects of tobacco smoking on worldwide tuberculosis control: mathematical modelling analysis. BMJ, 2011. 343: p. d5506. 31. Lin, H.H., et al., Effects of smoking and solid-fuel use on COPD, lung cancer, and tuberculosis in China: a time-based, multiple risk factor, modelling study. Lancet, 2008. 372(9648): p. 1473-83. 32. Oxlade, O., C.C. Huang, and M. Murray, Estimating the Impact of Reducing Under-Nutrition on the Tuberculosis Epidemic in the Central Eastern States of India: A Dynamic Modeling Study. PLoS One, 2015. 10(6): p. e0128187. 33. Pan, S.C., et al., Effect of diabetes on tuberculosis control in 13 countries with high tuberculosis: a modelling study. Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol, 2015. 3(5): p. 323-30. 34. Department of Household Registration, M.o.I. Population Statistics. [cited 2016 April, 14]; Available from: http://www.ris.gov.tw/zh_TW/346. 35. National Development Council. Population Projections for Republic of China (Taiwan): 2014-2060. 2014 [cited 2016 April, 14]; Available from: http://www.ndc.gov.tw/Content_List.aspx?n=84223C65B6F94D72. 36. Marais, B.J., et al., The natural history of childhood intra-thoracic tuberculosis: a critical review of literature from the pre-chemotherapy era. Int J Tuberc Lung Dis, 2004. 8(4): p. 392-402. 37. Lee, P.H., et al., Risk factors associated with recurrence in pulmonary tuberculosis patients in Taiwan, 2006-2007 2012, Centers of Disease Control, Taiwan. 38. Lin, H.H., et al., Association between tobacco smoking and active tuberculosis in Taiwan: prospective cohort study. Am J Respir Crit Care Med, 2009. 180(5): p. 475-80. 39. WHO, Physical status: the use and interpretation of anthropometry. Report of a WHO Expert Committee. World Health Organ Tech Rep Ser, 1995. 854: p. 1-452. 40. Leung, C.C., et al., Smoking adversely affects treatment response, outcome and relapse in tuberculosis. Eur Respir J, 2015. 45(3): p. 738-45. 41. Mahishale, V., et al., Prevalence of Smoking and Its Impact on Treatment Outcomes in Newly Diagnosed Pulmonary Tuberculosis Patients: A Hospital-Based Prospective Study. Chonnam Med J, 2015. 51(2): p. 86-90. 42. Thomas, A., et al., Predictors of relapse among pulmonary tuberculosis patients treated in a DOTS programme in South India. Int J Tuberc Lung Dis, 2005. 9(5): p. 556-61. 43. Yen, Y.F., et al., Smoking increases risk of recurrence after successful anti-tuberculosis treatment: a population-based study. Int J Tuberc Lung Dis, 2014. 18(4): p. 492-8. 44. Lee, P.-H., et al., Glycemic control and the risk of tuberculosis: a cohort study PLoS Med, 2016. 45. WHO, Global Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases 2013-2020. 2013: Geneva, Switzerland. 46. Health Promotion Administration, 2015 Taiwan Tobacco Control Annual Report. 2015. 47. 陳俊興, 飲酒的流行病學. 2004, 台北: 國家衛生研究院. 48. Liang, C.-Y., et al., Prevalence Rates of Alcohol Drinking in Taiwan. Taiwan J Oral Med Health Sci, 2004. 20(2): p. 91-104. 49. Chen, T.-L., The Political Economy of the Indigenous People's Drinking-related Health Problems in Taiwan. Taiwan: A Radical Quarterly in Social Studies, 2014. 97: p. 247-282. 50. Kao, W.-P., A Historical Analysis of the Tuberculosis Problem among the Indigenous People in Taiwan. Taiwan: A Radical Quarterly in Social Studies, 2014. 97: p. 283-314. 51. NCD Risk Factor Collaboration, Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants. Lancet, 2016. 387(10027): p. 1513-30. 52. Wu, C.-Y., Impact of Nutrition Transition on the Control of Tuberculosis: A Modelling Study. 2015, National Taiwan University: Taipei, Taiwan. 53. Bates, M.N., et al., Risk of tuberculosis from exposure to tobacco smoke: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Arch Intern Med, 2007. 167(4): p. 335-42. 54. Gao, L., et al., Latent tuberculosis infection in rural China: baseline results of a population-based, multicentre, prospective cohort study. Lancet Infect Dis, 2015. 15(3): p. 310-9. 55. Dye, C., The Population Biology of Tuberculosis. 1 ed. 2015, Princeton: Princeton University Press. 56. Fu, H., Evaluating the Impact of Potential Interventions on the Tuberculosis Epidemic in Taiwan. 2014, National Taiwan University: Taipei, Taiwan. 57. Lee, R.D. and L.R. Carter, Modeling and Forecasting U.S. Mortality. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1992. 87(419): p. 659-671. 58. Vynnycky, E. and P.E. Fine, The natural history of tuberculosis: the implications of age-dependent risks of disease and the role of reinfection. Epidemiol Infect, 1997. 119(2): p. 183-201. 59. Dye, C., et al., Prospects for worldwide tuberculosis control under the WHO DOTS strategy. Directly observed short-course therapy. Lancet, 1998. 352(9144): p. 1886-91. 60. Hughes, G.R., C. Currie, and E.L. Corbett, Modeling tuberculosis in areas of high HIV prevalence, in Proceedings of the 38th conference on Winter simulation. 2006. 61. Center of Disease Control, T., Taiwan Tuberculosis Control Report. 2000. 62. Center of Disease Control, T., Taiwan Tuberculosis Control Report. 2005. 63. Center of Disease Control, T., Taiwan Tuberculosis Control Report. 2010. 64. Center of Disease Control, T., Taiwan Tuberculosis Control Report. 2013. 65. Wei-Cheng Lo, H.-H.L., Joint Impact of Modifiable Risk Factors on Tuberculosis: a Population-based Cohort Study. | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/49970 | - |
dc.description.abstract | 背景:
過去十年,臺灣的結核病通報率持續地下降,但結核病仍然是不可忽視的公共衛生議題之一。為了更有效控制結核病疫情,疾病管制署配合世界衛生組織的消除結核策略訂定了新的一期結核病防治計畫,期望能將臺灣的結核病發生率在2035年之前降低至每十萬人十個個案。而控制結核病相關的危險因子是減少結核病疫情的一種介入方式,但過去少有研究評估預防危險因子對控制一個國家的結核病疫情有多少影響。 方法: 本研究建立了一個結核病數理模型,並將其調整為符合臺灣過去的結核病疫情,以評估各個危險因子的介入對台灣結核病疫情的影響。根據過去的系統性文獻回顧,我們假設抽菸、飲酒、糖尿病以及體重過輕會影響模型中的參數。我們根據世界衛生組織的慢性病防治目標以及聯合國提出的永續發展目標訂定未來的危險因子防治目標,並比較達到不同的防治目標下,2035年的結核病發生率將比2015年的基準值改變多少百分比,以此指標評估預防危險因子將如何影響臺灣結核病疫情。 結果: 假設現有的結核病防治策略不變,以及所有的危險因子皆隨著現在的趨勢變化,即抽菸和體重過輕的盛行率下降、飲酒盛行率不變、糖尿病盛行率增加,2035年的結核病發生率將會比2015年減少4.6% (95% Uncertainty interval (UI): -20.3 to 2.3)。將此改變量作為基準,比較達到不同的危險因子介入目標下結核病發生率的改變量與基準值的差。若是達到飲酒盛行率減少10%的目標,結核病累積發生率將比基準值多減少2.9% (95% UI: -4.1 to -1.7)。糖尿病盛行率停止上升則能讓2035年的結核病發生率再多降低9.7% (95% UI: -13.5 to -6.1)。若體重過輕的盛行率於2030年降至零,結核病累績發生率將比基準值減少0.8% (95% UI: -1.2 to -0.5)。而吸菸盛行率停止下降則會使得結核病累積發生率比基準值增加5.1% (95% UI: 2.5 to 7.6)。同時達到飲酒、糖尿病及體重過輕的介入目標,結核病發生率將比基準值減少11.6% (95% UI: -15.3 to -7.8)。在最理想的情況下,即所有危險因子的盛行率都在2030年降至零,結核病發生率將比基準值減少36.0% (95% UI: -47.1 to 24.0)。 結論: 本研究顯示藉由危險因子的控制,能降低結核病的發生率。而在這四個危險因子當中,因為糖尿病大幅上升的趨勢,糖尿病的控制與預防對結核病疫情的影響是最大的。結核病防治與慢性病防治的整合應有利於達到消除結核的目標。 | zh_TW |
dc.description.abstract | Background
In the new End TB Strategy, management of TB risk factors, including smoking, alcohol use, diabetes, and underweight, is considered to be a critical component. Few studies have assessed the impact of reducing multiple risk factors on future trend of TB incidence at the national level. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effect of risk factors control on TB incidence in Taiwan. Methods We constructed a compartmental model with age structure for tuberculosis transmission, and calibrated the model to the trend of TB incidence in Taiwan. Smoking, alcohol use, diabetes, and underweight were assumed to affect the parameters related to tuberculosis natural history in the model, following the results of previous systematic reviews. We constructed future scenarios of risk factor control based on the World Health Organization’s Noncommunicable Disease (NCD) control targets and the Sustainable Development Goals. The effect of risk factors control was evaluated by comparing the percentage of reduction in TB incidence under different scenarios between 2015 and 2035. Results In base case scenario, if current tuberculosis control measures remain unchanged and all the risk factors follow the current trend (decreasing prevalence of smoking and underweight, stable trend of alcohol use, and increasing prevalence of diabetes), the cumulative reduction of TB incidence would only be 4.6% (95% UI: -20.3 to 2.3) in 2015-2035. Compared with the base case scenario, the TB incidence would be further reduced by 2.9% (95% UI: -4.1 to -1.7) if the target of alcohol use reduction is achieved. If diabetes stops rising after 2015, the relative reduction in cumulative TB incidence would be 9.7% (95% UI: -13.5 to -6.1). In the scenario of end hunger, the relative reduction would be 0.8% (95% UI: -1.2 to -0.5) if the prevalence of underweight reduces to zero by 2030. However, if the prevalence of smoking stops declining, the relative increase in cumulative TB incidence would be 5.1% (95% UI: 2.5 to 7.6). For the interventions on multiple risk factors, achieving the targets of alcohol use reduction, diabetes stop rising, and ending hunger simultaneously would result in further 11.6% (95% UI: -15.3 to -7.8) reduction in cumulative TB incidence compared with the base case scenario. If all risk factors reduce to zero by 2030, the relative reduction would be 36.0% (95% UI: -47.1 to 24.0) by 2035. Conclusions Our study indicates that controlling the risk factors at the population level could reduce TB burden. Among the four risk factors considered, the impact of diabetes control would be the greatest given to the observed rising trend of diabetes. Coordinated efforts between the national TB program and the NCD program will be required to help achieve the target of the End TB strategy. | en |
dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2021-06-15T12:26:59Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ntu-105-R03849005-1.pdf: 2585217 bytes, checksum: 56f4297899e4ea187d9c5b0f758c6342 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016 | en |
dc.description.tableofcontents | 摘要 i
Abstract iii Content vi Chapter 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Background 1 1.3 Determinants of tuberculosis 3 1.4 Previous modelling studies 4 1.5 Research aim 5 Chapter 2 Methods 6 2.1 Basic model structure 6 2.2 Model calibration 7 2.3 Modelling the effect of risk factors 8 2.3.1 Definition of risk factors 8 2.3.2 Prevalence of risk factors 9 2.3.3 Relative risks 9 2.3.4 Parameter adjustment 10 2.4 Outcome measurement and scenarios 10 2.5 Sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis 12 Chapter 3 Results 14 3.1 Impact of interventions in reducing single risk factor 14 3.2 Impact of joint risk factor reduction 16 3.3 Sensitivity analysis 16 Chapter 4 Discussions 18 4.1 Main findings 18 4.2 The impact of risk factor control on TB incidence 18 4.2.1 Smoking 18 4.2.2 Alcohol use 19 4.2.3 Diabetes 20 4.2.2 Underweight 21 4.3 Strengths and limitations 21 4.4 Future direction 24 4.5 Conclusion 25 Figures 27 Tables 40 References 44 Appendix 49 | |
dc.language.iso | en | |
dc.title | 以數理模式評估危險因子防治對臺灣結核病疫情的影響 | zh_TW |
dc.title | The Effect of Risk Factor Control on Tuberculosis in Taiwan: A Modelling Study | en |
dc.type | Thesis | |
dc.date.schoolyear | 104-2 | |
dc.description.degree | 碩士 | |
dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 江振源,方啟泰,簡國龍 | |
dc.subject.keyword | 結核病,數理模型,吸菸,喝酒,糖尿病,體重過輕, | zh_TW |
dc.subject.keyword | tuberculosis,dynamic model,smoking,alcohol,diabetes,underweight, | en |
dc.relation.page | 63 | |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.6342/NTU201602123 | |
dc.rights.note | 有償授權 | |
dc.date.accepted | 2016-08-10 | |
dc.contributor.author-college | 公共衛生學院 | zh_TW |
dc.contributor.author-dept | 流行病學與預防醫學研究所 | zh_TW |
顯示於系所單位: | 流行病學與預防醫學研究所 |
文件中的檔案:
檔案 | 大小 | 格式 | |
---|---|---|---|
ntu-105-1.pdf 目前未授權公開取用 | 2.52 MB | Adobe PDF |
系統中的文件,除了特別指名其著作權條款之外,均受到著作權保護,並且保留所有的權利。