中共和平崛起之政經分析

Abstract

國際情勢詭譎多變，二十世紀末期，由於蘇聯解體，冷戰結束，世界格局由「兩極體系」演變為「一超多強」型態，美國成為世界唯一超級強權，而中共因實行「改革開放」政策，經濟迅速發展，政治生態產生變化，綜合國力逐漸提升，崛起之勢日益增強，成為區域的政治、經濟、軍事大國，已被美國視為主要的競爭對手。 中共自知面對美國一貫的霸權行為及國際政治現實制約因素，以其目前的實力，甚或短短數年之光景，尚無法單獨與美國一較高下，更不足以稱霸無敵於天下；然而，基於「走出去」的戰略需要，中共第四代領導集體胡溫體制在2003年底提出「和平崛起」的國際戰略新思維，主張共同發展、共同繁榮，持續加入經濟全球化，並堅持和平、不稱霸的外交政策，倡議「和諧世界」理念，藉以推動世界多極化格局，制衡美國的霸權行為，進而尋求成為全球性強權的地位。 作為社會科學的一部分，政治經濟學不只重視理論層面的研究，也兼顧客觀結構脈動的政治經濟因果變遷，並強調對於實際政經問題的分析與解決。以政經分析的視角而言，針對中共「和平崛起」的研究課題，假如要解釋或解決相關問題，必須先從開放的政經脈絡中，定位各相關主體的結構性特色，並從整體政經結構的長期變遷中，才能掌握以這些主體為核心的相關特定因果脈絡與發展。換言之，「和平崛起」做為一項涉及國家戰略、政治制度、經濟發展、意識形態與價值觀的多元化命題，「中國」係其中主要的行為主體，同時也牽動了面向其他行為主體的互動行為，包括與世界超級強權美國，及重要大國日、俄、英、法、德等國家的競合關係，這些互動行為相對的也產生了對國內外眾多不同層次政經制度與組織的交互影響。 綜上，「和平崛起」乃中共進入二十一世紀重要的國家大戰略，不僅具有繼承民族發展史觀的意涵，更賦予延伸未來復興道路的戰略思維。而「和平崛起」戰略鑲嵌於中共內部政治經濟情勢，並對外擴展至世界格局中的國際政治經濟體系。不論從政治層面或經濟層面來分析，都受到時間脈絡與空間變化的交互影響。因此，本研究將以中共「和平崛起」命題為出發點，針對涵蓋「中共內部」及「國際環境」的各種實存現象及其因果脈絡，加以分析、解釋，進而研判可能發展，據此形構一套完整的政經分析。

The international situation is treacherous and volatile. Since the dismemberment of the former Soviet Union and the end of The Cold War in the late twentieth century, the world has changed from the “bi-polar system” to “one superpower and multi powers”, in which the U.S. has become the world’s sole superpower. However, under the implementation of the “reform and opening-up” policy, China’s economy has been growing rapidly, political ecology changing tremendously, and overall strength increasing dramatically. All of above has made China the region’s strongest country in terms of its political, economic, and military powers. China has since also been regarded as the U.S.’s main competitor. While facing the U.S.’s constant hegemonic conducts and the reality of international constraints, China is aware that with its current ability it still can not compete against the U.S., even given it a few more years, and is less likely to be able to dominate the world. However, because of the strategic need to “reach out”, China’s fourth generation of leadership, the “Hu-Wen regime” proposed a strategic international new way of thinking called the 'peaceful rise' in the end of 2003, which advocated ideas such as common development and common prosperity. This strategy stated that China would continue to participate in economic globalization, adhere to a peaceful and non-hegemonic foreign policy and initiate the 'harmonious world' concept so that China can promote a multi-polar world pattern, counterbalance American hegemony, and eventually seek the chance to establish its status as a global superpower. As part of social science, the study of political economy not only focuses on the theoretical research, it also takes into account the objective structure pulses and cause and effect changes in politics and economics. It emphasizes analyzing and solving practical problems in politics and economics. Under the perspective of political and economic analysis, when it comes to the study of China's 'peaceful rise' issue, in order to explain or solve related problems, we must start from the open context in the core body of politics and economics to position the structural characteristics in related subjects, and look into the long term development and change of the overall political and economic structures. In other words, when it comes to “peaceful rise” such a diversified subject that involves national strategies, the political system, economic development, ideology and value, China is the major actor and therefore affects the behaviors of other actors including its co-competition relationships with the U.S. and other major countries such as Japan, Russia, Britain, France and Germany. All of these interactions lead to interactive effects upon multi-level political and economic systems and structures, both at home and abroad. In summary, the 'peaceful rise' has been China’s grand strategy entering the 21st century which not only inherited national development history, but also extended future revival strategic thinking. This strategy was embedded in China's internal political and economic situations but also extended outside to international political and economic systems. Whether analyzing it on a political or economic level, it is subject to the effects of time and changes of context. Therefore, this study will start with 'China's peaceful rise' and cover the various current 'Chinese internal' and 'international environment' phenomenon and its causal context to analyze, interpret and decide its future potential development, and then build accordingly to a complete set of political and economic analysis.