台灣政府支出結構與經濟成長關係之研究

Abstract

本文探討樣本期間自1962年至2014年，台灣政府支出結構與經濟成長的關係，其中台灣政府支出結構按政事別可區分為：一般政務支出、國防支出及經濟發展支出等。實證研究結果發現，教育科學文化支出長期對於經濟成長呈現正相關；經濟發展支出、國防支出及一般政務支出則呈現負相關。經濟成長與國防支出呈現短期正相關，可能是因為國防支出會有採購立即性的商品，將使得短期經濟成長；短期經濟發展支出與經濟成長呈現正相關，可能是因為在大量基礎建設的時代，對經濟成長有充分的影響，但現在台灣大型基礎建設都已完成，長期效果還是與經濟成長呈現負相關；教育支出短期呈現顯著負相關，是因為人力資本累積速度較慢，並不會有立即性影響，進而使得經濟成長與教育支出呈現短期負相關；社會安全與退撫支出，則是長短期皆無顯著相性。

This study analyzes the relationship between the structure of government expenditure and economic growth rate in Taiwan with the sample period from 1962 to 2014. Specifically, the structure of government expenditure could be divided into three categories: the expenditure on general government, the expenditure on national defense and the expenditure on economic development. The empirical results indicate that the economic growth rate is positively related to the expenditure on education, science and culture; on the other hand, the economic growth rate is negatively related to expenditure on the expenditure on general government, national defense and economic development. In the short term, the correlation between the economic growth rate and expenditure on national defense is positive because of the expenditure includes the spending on the purchase of instant commodities leading to the temporary economic growth. In addition to that, the expenditure on economic development also positively correlates with the economic growth in the short term. Possible explanation might be that a large number of infrastructure was constructed in the past and it consequently induced the fast-pace economic growth; however, most infrastructure had been completely established so that the situation provoked a negative correlation between the expenditure on economic development and the economic growth rate in the long term. Besides, the expenditure on education negatively correlates with the economic growth rate due to the slow accumulation of human capital having no instant effect on economic growth. Furthermore, expenditure on social security, retirement and relief have no significant effect on the economic growth rate.