阿里巴巴股價影響因素分析及價值評估

Abstract

紐約時間2014年9月19日，互聯網公司阿里巴巴集團在美國紐約證券交易所上市，創造了美國史上最大規模IPO的紀錄。全世界目光都聚集在中國大陸，人們迫切地想知道究竟是一個怎樣的環境造就了這麼一家互聯網巨擘，以及這樣一家企業究竟能值多少錢。 本文使用現金流量折現法作為基礎，對阿里巴巴集團進行價值評估。在此基礎上，本文也分析了阿里巴巴集團上市前後各種因素的影響，希望全面分析各項因素並藉此估計出一個真實的符合市場預期的股票價值。本文將影響股價的因素分為兩類，一類是直接影響具體業務的因素，這些將影響到現金流量折現法的估計和計算；另一類則是影響整體股價的因素，在用現金流量折現法計算出股價之後，這些因素會在該股價之上追加一定的影響。最後的結果，即是盡可能分析了所有的影響因素而得出的。分析各種影響因素的另一個目的，也是希望通過阿里巴巴這個實際例子向台灣介紹一個中國大陸企業的發展和面臨的各種問題，希望藉此向台灣展示大陸真實的商業環境。 在進行價值評估之餘，本文也推薦了一些國際分析師的分析報告或分析結果。本文的結果會與這些分析師的分析結果進行對比，也會與阿里巴巴股價實際情況進行對比，以分析本文結果的合理性。

On September 19, 2014, Chinese internet company Alibaba Group got listed in NYSE and became the largest IPO case in the US history. All the people around the world wanted to know what made a company so successful, and how much the company was worth on earth. This thesis uses DCF method for the valuation of Alibaba Group. In addition, this thesis also analyses the influence factors that may exist around the time of IPO, in order to get a comprehensive and reasonable result that can be recognized by the market. The influence factors are divided into two categories. One includes the factors that impact the specific businesses. These factors affects the valuation basis and calculations of the DCF model. The other category consists of factors that generally affect the price. After getting the price with the DCF method, these factors may have some additional influences on the final price. Another purpose of influence factors analysis is to introduce an Mainland China company to Taiwan by using the real company Alibaba as an example, about its development and problems raising from the growth. This may help to give a true and neutral view of business environment in Mainland China. Besides valuation, this thesis also recommends some reports and results of some international analysts. The result of this thesis is compared with these analysts’, as well as the stock’s real performance in the market, to test the reasonableness of the thesis.