台灣儲蓄率之總體計量研究

Abstract

台灣過去的經濟奇蹟來自於高儲蓄率以及相應之下的高投資率，實證也顯示一國之儲蓄與其經濟成長息息相關，對於發展初期的農業社會來說，高儲蓄率有助於經濟體系轉型成工業體系，但對已趨成熟的經濟體系來說，高儲蓄率可能代表人民對未來抱有不確定性，其原因可能來自政治、物價、股價、國際情勢等，因而使預防性儲蓄增加。近年來台灣經濟情勢變化迅速，從國內對於人口老化的憂慮到國外正在與中國協商簽訂的ECFA，都與台灣的未來經濟發展息息相關，而儲蓄率在這之中又扮演什麼角色呢？

本文蒐集各個台灣總體經濟變數的資料以及國外部門之重要變數，建立一總體計量模型，其中包含82條方程式 (50條結構式、32條定義式)以及81個內生變數、20個外生變數，模型樣本期間從1986年第一季到2009年第四季。模型在靜態測驗以及樣本外預測的部分表現合理且良好；在情境分析的部分，我們分析三種情境：(1)非政府部門儲蓄率(2)撫養比(3)自發性民間投資，探討當這些變數改變時對台灣經濟之衝擊。其結果分別顯示非政府部門儲蓄率之增加有利於經濟成長、撫養比的提高在長期下不利於台灣經濟的發展，以及民間投資自發性的提高不僅有利於經濟發展，長期下也可改善投資環境。

In the past, The Economic Miracle from Taiwan was related to high saving rates and the corresponding high investment rates, many evidences also show that a country's saving is strongly connected to its economic growth. To the agricultural society in its early stage of development, high saving rate is beneficial to the transformation from an economic to an industrial system, and yet to the economic system that is experiencing its maturation, high saving rate could indicate people's uncertainty to the future. The reasons for such an uncertainty could be politic, stock price, prices of commodities, and international relations: all causing the increase in the behaviors of precautionary savings. In the recent years, Taiwan's economy is in its ever-changing state. From domestic view, the aging population, and from foreign affairs, such as China signing the ECFA, all these are closely tied-up with Taiwan's future economic development. Yet what role does the saving rate play in a time like this? This article collects the economic variables and data from each of Taiwan's macroeconomic variables and of the foreign department's variables to build a macroeconomic model, which includes 50 structural equations, 32 definition equations and 81 endogenous variables, 20 exogenous variables. The period is from the first season of 1986 to the fourth season of 2009. The Model performs reasonably and well in both static test and outside of sample forecasts. In the scenario analysis, it analyzes three kinds of scenarios: (1) non-governmental saving rate (2) dependency ratio (3) spontaneous private investment. The model explores the possible impact on Taiwan's economy as a consequence of any change in these scenarios. The outcome shows that the increase in non-governmental saving rate is beneficial to the economic growth, the increase in dependency ratio is, in the long term, unfavorable to Taiwan's economic development, and the increase in spontaneous private investment is not only beneficial to the economic development, but also advantageous to the improvement of investment environment in the long run.