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| DC 欄位 | 值 | 語言 |
|---|---|---|
| dc.contributor.advisor | 賴朝明(Chao-Ming Lai) | |
| dc.contributor.author | Shan-Yuan Chu | en |
| dc.contributor.author | 邱尚沅 | zh_TW |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2021-06-15T06:51:39Z | - |
| dc.date.available | 2012-02-20 | |
| dc.date.copyright | 2011-02-20 | |
| dc.date.issued | 2011 | |
| dc.date.submitted | 2011-02-14 | |
| dc.identifier.citation | 申雍。2007。臺灣地區農業部門受全球氣候暖化之影響及調適策略。環境工程會刊18：9-6。
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| dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/48296 | - |
| dc.description.abstract | 本研究以不同栽培期模擬氣候變遷在台灣西北部苗栗試驗區進行水稻栽培，並藉由政府間氣候變遷委員會(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , IPCC)第三次與第四次評估報告與統計降尺度方法所產生之未來本世紀末期氣象資料，以水稻生長模式ORYZA2000評估未來氣候變遷對台灣西北部之土壤性質及水稻產量之衝擊，並提出其因應策略。
氣候變遷對土壤性質之衝擊方面，由不同時期進行採樣分析之結果顯示，土壤pH、質地與有效性磷含量之變化差異並不明顯，而土壤培育試驗模擬氣候變遷(氣溫上升)影響之結果顯示，氣溫上升使土壤微生物行有機質礦化作用之活性與無機態氮含量增加，但其對水稻產量之增加則不明顯。 經由水稻生長模式ORYZA2000模擬之結果顯示，採用第三次評估報告(A2情境)之每月氣象資料，預估台灣西北部未來本世紀末期(2080-2099)水稻之產量以四月中旬插秧者產量增加最多(38％)，而以七月中旬插秧者減少最多(23％)。若以第四次評估報告(A1B情境)之氣候模式CCCma、GFDL、CSIRO與NIES-hires產生之本世紀中期(2046~2065)及末期(2080~2099)之每日氣象資料，分別利用水稻生長模式Oryza2000評估水稻之平均產量與上世紀末四十年(1960~1999)之平均產量比較，結果顯示自二月底至八月初進行水稻插秧，其產量於本世紀末期皆會增加，其中以插秧期於四月初至五月初之產量以前述四種氣候模式預估分別可增產37％、31％、34％與25％最為明顯。 本研究之結果可作為氣候變遷對台灣西北部土壤性質及水稻產量衝擊評估之參考。其因應策略，若考慮當地颱風季節及原水稻之插秧期，於本世紀末期(2080~2099)一期稻作之插秧期可調整至三月中旬，二期稻作之插秧期則維持不變。若再考慮不同品種可能會受高溫影響(產量及品質)，以及使用較長期之水稻栽培及氣象資料進行校正與驗證，其因應策略則有待後續研究之。 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract | An experimental rice field in Miaoli, Northwest Taiwan was selected to assess the impacts of climate change on soil properties and rice yields. A rice growth model “ORYZA2000” cooperated with soil properties and meteorology data generated by a statistical down scale climate model were used to estimate the rice yields of late 21st century (2080-2099) affected by climate change, and their adaptive strategies were also suggested. The results from the analyses data of soils sampled on different dates showed that the changes in soil pH and available phosphate were not significant. The results of soil incubation experiments simulated climate change showed that the raising temperatures (2-3 oC) increased the mineralized nitrogen contents in soils but not obviously for the rice yields. The results showed that the rice yield would increase most (38％) when transplanted in middle April, and decrease most (27％) in middle July in late 21st century (2080-2099). The results from the ORYZA2000 and two sets of twenty-year daily meteorology data (2046~2065 and 2080~2099) compared with those of forty-year (1960~1999) showed that rice yield would increase 37％, 31％, 34％, and 25％ when transplanted in early April to early May by climate models CCCma, GFDL, CSIRO, and NIES-hires, respectively. The results of this study could be used for references to assess impacts of climate change on soil properties and rice yield in northwest Taiwan. The adaptive strategy suggested was to adjust the transplanting date of rice crop to middle March for the first season and remain unchanged for the second season in late 21st century (2080~2099), when considering the local typhoon seasons and original transplanting dates. However, it deserves further studies when considering more rice varieties and longer term data of rice cultivation and meteorology used. | en |
| dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2021-06-15T06:51:39Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ntu-100-R97623014-1.pdf: 1087454 bytes, checksum: 614774c4ee50127bb2c41ac3048fc829 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011 | en |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 口試委員會審定書..........................................i
誌謝.....................................................ii 中文摘要................................................iii 英文摘要..................................................v 目錄....................................................vii 表次.....................................................ix 圖次......................................................x 第一章 前言...............................................1 第二章 前人研究...........................................2 2.1氣候變遷之衝擊.........................................2 2.2氣候變遷與水稻產量.....................................5 2.3氣候變遷與土壤性質.....................................7 2.4水稻生長模式Oryza 2000程式.............................9 2.5氣候變遷之模擬........................................10 2.6氣候變遷之因應........................................13 第三章 材料與方法........................................16 3.1試驗地點與土壤樣品之採集..............................17 3.2水稻品種..............................................17 3.3水稻生長模式ORYZA2000.................................17 3.4土壤理化性質測定方法..................................19 3.4.1土壤物理性質........................................19 3.4.2土壤化學性質........................................19 3.4.3土壤生物性質........................................20 3.5氣象站之選用..........................................21 3.6氣候模式以及氣象資料之選用............................21 3.7土壤培育實驗..........................................30 第四章 結果與討論........................................31 4.1土壤性質之變化........................................31 4.2不同栽培時期對苗栗試驗區水稻產量及生質量之影響........39 4.3 2008年苗栗試驗區水稻生質量與產量之驗證結果...........39 4.4 2008年苗栗試驗區水稻生質量與產量與2099年預估之結果...45 4.5土壤礦化氮素及其對水稻產量之影響......................53 4.6 A2與 A1B情境下以水稻生長模式ORYZA2000預估苗栗試驗區未 來本世紀中期期與世紀末期水稻產量之變化...............63 4.7氣候變遷對水稻產量衝擊之因應策略......................67 第五章 結論.............................................68 參考文獻.................................................70 附錄.....................................................86 | |
| dc.language.iso | zh-TW | |
| dc.title | 氣候變遷對台灣西北部土壤性質及水稻產量之衝擊評估及因應策略 | zh_TW |
| dc.title | Impact Assessment and Adaptive Strategies of Climate Change on Soil Properties and Rice Yield in Northwest Taiwan | en |
| dc.type | Thesis | |
| dc.date.schoolyear | 99-1 | |
| dc.description.degree | 碩士 | |
| dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 楊盛行(Shang-Shyng Yang),盧虎生(Huu-Sheng Lur),柳中明(Chung-Ming Liu),施養信(Yang-Hsin Shih) | |
| dc.subject.keyword | 氣候變遷,台灣,土壤性質,水稻產量,Oryza2000,衝擊,因應策略, | zh_TW |
| dc.subject.keyword | climate change,Taiwan,soil property,rice yield,Oryza2000,impact,adaptive strategy, | en |
| dc.relation.page | 86 | |
| dc.rights.note | 有償授權 | |
| dc.date.accepted | 2011-02-15 | |
| dc.contributor.author-college | 生物資源暨農學院 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author-dept | 農業化學研究所 | zh_TW |
| 顯示於系所單位： | 農業化學系 | |
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