台北市、全國房地產市場與總體經濟連結度-台北市房地產是否為總體優良指標

Abstract

自20世紀以來，金融自由化、全球化使資金在國際間迅速流動，促使各國資產市場出現較以往更大幅度和密集波動。尤其是房地產市場市場之波動。台灣經歷三次房地產的景氣循環，在2007年美國次貸風暴後，面臨第四次的景氣循環榮景，比以前更嚴苛的環境下，此次房地產市場將會如何變化，是很重要的觀察重點。 本文以台灣1993年第1季至2010年第3季，共71筆季資料。探討哪些總體變數會影響房地產市場及其中的連結度。實證分析利用房地產價格、國內生產毛額、利率、股價指數、房屋貸款及M1B餘額探討與房地產價格的關係，並更深入探討是否台北市房地產價格，能比台灣房地產價格為更優良之指標，更能反應總體經濟的變動。 實證分析後發現，台北市房地產價格能較快反應總體環境的變動，但是統計上卻沒有全國房地產價格顯著，全國房地產價格維持穩定的落後期數並顯著與總體變數相互反應。

Since 1980s, the idle capital have circulated rapidly around the world due to the financial globalization and liberalization, which makes enormous and frequent oscillations in asset markets, especially in real estate market. In this paper, we took 71 data collected from 1993 Q1 to 2010 Q3 in Taiwan, to explore the linkage between fundamental macro variables and the real estate market. We use the following variables: real estate prices, gross domestic product, interest rate, stock index, housing loans and the monetary aggregates M1B. Further, we inquire whether the real estate prices in Taipei city are better indicators than overall estate prices in Taiwan with respect to economic fluctuations. Empirical result suggest that, though not significant, Taipei real estate prices change more quickly in response to the economic fluctuations. However, overall estate prices produce significant results.