消費券政策之研究

Abstract

2008年全球金融風暴最早可追溯從美國開始，之後這場風暴從美國延燒到其他國家，層出不窮的金融問題使得金融市場急速惡化，到處充滿了對未來不抱希望、投資信心不足、失業率攀升與減少消費使各國經濟景氣下滑到谷底，因此我國政府在考量諸多景氣刺激的手段之後，迅速對全民發放消費券，每人新台幣3,600元，發放總金額為新台幣832.63億元，受益人數達23,128,527人，期望能在短時間內提升人民消費與信心，進而提升經濟景氣。 本次研究範圍專注在政府採用消費券來挽救經濟的原因、發放消費券可能產生的經濟效益，並以政策研習的態度，彙整相關資料。 從消費券發放當月的零售業營業額高於2008年各月份可以看出消費券的發放的確對本國經濟有所助益，不過也由於消費券的兌付速度過快，在2009年第一季結束時已兌付超過百分之七十，消費券所創造的乘數效果僅在第一季顯現，但後繼無力，使得整體乘數效果有限。 比較各國所採取類似補貼的方案可以看出，發券比發現金更能刺激經濟，而且乘數效果需要透過機制去創造，也就是對接受補貼的對象與可購買的產品加以限制，不但可以聚焦帶動國內消費也能藉機扶植相關產業。 本次發放消費券所產生的效益包括鼓勵民眾在景氣低迷時勇敢的消費、恢復民眾信心、讓下滑的經濟止跌、展現政府部門團結合作與效率，成功達到發放的短期目標。

In 2008, as a financial tsunami swept the world, many believed the root of the problem was the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States. Ripples spread around the entire world - bankrupting a country, governments and many financial institutions. In an already weakened economic environment, investors continued to lose confidence, unemployment soared to an all time high and consumer spending continued to shrink. Thus economic growth continued to spiral downward. After careful consideration of all economic indicators and approaches taken by other countries, the Taiwan government launched the Consumption Voucher Policy in a short period of time. Every eligible resident received TWD $3,600 as a spending voucher. The Taiwan government thus injected roughly TWD $83.263 billion via 23,128,527 residents hoping to bolster consumer confidence, increase consumer spending, and stimulate economic growth via the multiplier effect.

The scope of this study is focusing on the causes and effectiveness of the program, and summarizing the data collected to record the first issuance of consumption vouchers. Immediately following the initial issuance of consumption vouchers in January 2009, domestic sales is higher than every month of the prior year. However, by the end of the first quarter 2009, more than 70% of the consumption vouchers were redeemed. Due to the high initial rate of redemption and thus short lived increase in consumer spending, the multiplier effect was less significant than expected. By comparing the voucher program with similar subsidy programs adopted by other countries, it is found that the voucher system is a far better approach than either a tax refund or cash reward. Addition restrictions on voucher redemption could be incorporated to target selected industries and thus prolong the increase in domestic spending, enhancing the multiplier effect and develop the supply chains of key industries The issuance of the consumption voucher which helped to stop the economic free fall by encouraging consumer spending, also demonstrated government efficiency and exhibited cooperation among government authorities and people, all contributing to successfully fulfilling its short term goal.