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完整後設資料紀錄
DC 欄位 | 值 | 語言 |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.advisor | 周雍強 | |
dc.contributor.author | Jhong-Sing Wang | en |
dc.contributor.author | 王中興 | zh_TW |
dc.date.accessioned | 2021-06-15T05:23:03Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2013-07-27 | |
dc.date.copyright | 2010-07-27 | |
dc.date.issued | 2010 | |
dc.date.submitted | 2010-07-18 | |
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[2]Black, F., & Scholes, M. (1973). 'The pricing of options and corporate liabilities'. Journal of Political Economy, 81(3), pp.637-654. [3]Chou, Y.-C. (2007). 'Using capacity as a competition strategy in a manufacturing duopoly'. International Symposium on Semiconductor Manufacturing 2007, pp.1-4. [4]Chou, Y.-C., Cheng, C.-T., Yang, F.-C., Liang, Y.-Y. (2007). 'Evaluating alternative capacity strategies in semiconductor manufacturing under uncertain demand and price scenarios'. International Journal of Production Economics, 105(2), pp.591-606. [5]Gutenberg, E. (1992). 'Investment Policy in Industrial Enterprises'. Management International Review, First Quarter, pp.17-28. [6]Julka, N., Baines, T., Tjahjono, B., Lendermann, P., & Vitanov, V. (2007). 'A review of multi-factor capacity expansion models for manufacturing plants: Searching for a holistic decision aid'. International Journal of Production Economics, 106(2), pp.607-621. [7]Liang, Y.-Y., Chou, Y.-C. (2003). 'Option-based capacity planning for semiconductor manufacturing'. In: IEEE International Symposium on Semiconductor Manufacturing, pp.77-80. [8]Lieberman, M. B. (1987). 'Strategies for capacity expansion'. MIT Sloan Management Review, 28(4), pp.19. [9]Manne, A. S. (1961). 'Capacity expansion and probabilistic growth'. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 29(4), pp.632-649. [10]Rudberg, M., & Olhager, J. (2003). 'Manufacturing networks and supply chains: an operations strategy perspective'. Omega, 31(1), pp.29-39. [11]Schroeder, R. G., Anderson, J., and Cleveland, G. (1986). 'The Content of Manufacturing Strategy: An Empirical Study'. Journal of Operations Management, 6(4), pp.405-415. [12]Tsay, R. S. (2005). Analysis of Financial Time Series: Wiley-Interscience. [13]Wheelwright, S. C. (1978). 'Reflecting corporate strategy in manufacturing decisions'. Business Horizons, 21(1), pp.57-66. [14]宋文琪. (2009). '產能投資時點與投資規模方法之比較研究'. 國立台灣大學工業工程學研究所碩士論文. [15]周溫棋. (2009). '基於製程進步之製程需求組合現象分析'. 國立台灣大學工業工程學研究所碩士論文. [16]林震岩. (2006). 多變量分析: SPSS 的操作與應用: 智勝文化. [17]張世佳. (1995). '製造策略與事業策略之配適分析-高科技廠商之實證'. 國立台灣大學商學研究所博士論文. [18]楊奕農. (2009). 時間序列分析-經濟與財務上之應用: 雙葉書局. [19]葉小蓁. (2006). 時間序列分析與應用. [20]榮泰生. (1995). 策略管理學: 華泰書局. [21]譚仲民. (2005). 'DRAM產業十年興衰-探索日本企業管理困境與全球競合趨勢'. 國立台灣大學商學研究所碩士論文. | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/46683 | - |
dc.description.abstract | 高科技產業之產品需求具有高度的不確定性,製程技術不斷地向前演進,加上建置新產能所需承擔的龐大成本與可能的營運風險,迫使廠商面臨更多來自環境與經營規劃上的考驗。DRAM產業之景氣循環現象相當明顯,且產能投資具有不可逆性,當需求充滿不確定性,供給與需求在時間上的落差,往往導致產品價格呈現劇烈波動,因此,如何正確掌握未來需求的趨勢,適時且適量來進行理性的擴充產能決策是廠商的獲利關鍵。
本文為擴產投資行為的比較研究,以半導體的DRAM產業為主要的研究對象。藉由分析產業的實際資料,建置兩種擴產行為模型-保守型與積極型,分析在不確定性的環境中,不同擴產行為的績效表現,在環境的設定中加入景氣循環的概念。實證DRAM產業的需求成長適合以幾何布朗運動過程來描述,不同廠商的資本支出與營收具有不同的因果關係;廠商資本支出與全球營收之間亦具有不同時間落差的相關性。最後的模擬結果,若具有製程技術優勢,則不論選哪一種擴產行為均會有不錯的績效表現,若沒有製程技術優勢,則積極型的擴產行為模式會有較佳的績效表現,而需求成長率因子和景氣年數因子均顯著影響績效表現。 | zh_TW |
dc.description.abstract | The demand of product of High-Tech industry is highly uncertain. Since the development of process technology evolved rapidly, companies may face strict challenges on environment and management planning owing to the cost caused by investment of new capacity and the potential risk of operation. The change on business cycle of DRAM industry is obvious and the investment in capacity is irreversible. The price of products will fluctuate violently because of the gap of supply and demand when demand is full of uncertainty. Therefore, grasping the trend of future demand correctly and expanding capacity in right time rationally is the key of making profits.
This thesis studies the behavior of capacity investment and regards DRAM industry as the research object. By analyzing the real data of the DRAM industry, two kinds of behavioral models are set up: conservative type and aggressive type. The other purpose is to analyze the performance of different types of investment behavior. The concept of business cycle is also considered in this uncertain environment. The results show that the demand of DRAM industry is suitable for being described with GBM process. Different manufacturers have different causality between capital expenditure and revenue. The correlation of manufacturers’ capital expenditure and global DRAM revenue is discrepant in different period. According to the simulation, we find out that manufacturer will have good performances if they have advantages on process technology, no matter which kinds of behavioral types; without technological advantage, the aggressive type will have better performance; and the performance of these two behavioral types is apparently influenced by growth factor and cycle factor. | en |
dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2021-06-15T05:23:03Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ntu-99-R97546034-1.pdf: 762953 bytes, checksum: 005c0c7d43cb873484052dde452fd1f3 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010 | en |
dc.description.tableofcontents | 誌謝...........................................I
中文摘要.......................................II Abstract.......................................III 圖目錄.........................................VI 表目錄.........................................VII 第一章 緒論....................................1 1.1問題背景....................................1 1.2問題描述....................................4 1.3研究目的....................................5 1.4論文架構....................................5 第二章 文獻回顧與產業現況探討..................7 2.1高科技產業之產能規劃策略....................7 2.2擴充產能策略................................8 2.3影響擴充產能的因素..........................11 2.4比較模擬分析................................12 2.5幾何布朗運動需求模型........................13 2.6DRAM廠商擴充廠房歷程........................16 第三章 擴產行為分析............................21 3.1全球DRAM營收之模型配適性....................21 3.2營收與資本支出的因果關係....................25 3.3全球營收與廠商資本支出的相關性..............30 3.4晶圓生產力..................................36 第四章 不確定需求環境對擴產投資行為之影響......40 4.1定義廠商擴產投資行為與績效函數..............40 4.2模擬景氣循環................................44 4.3擴產行為模擬與比較程序......................45 4.4模擬數值範例................................47 4.5設定模擬情境與參數..........................52 4.6模擬結果-「WPC=1.1 」........................60 4.7模擬結果-「WPC=1 」..........................63 4.8模擬結果-「WPC=0.9 」........................66 4.9二因子變異數分析 (Two-Way ANOVA)............68 第五章 結論與建議..............................75 5.1研究結論....................................75 5.2未來研究建議................................77 參考文獻.......................................78 | |
dc.language.iso | zh-TW | |
dc.title | DRAM製造企業擴產投資行為之比較分析 | zh_TW |
dc.title | A Comparative Analysis of Capacity Investment Behavior in the DRAM Manufacturing Industry | en |
dc.type | Thesis | |
dc.date.schoolyear | 98-2 | |
dc.description.degree | 碩士 | |
dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 丁達剛,吳政鴻,姜常俊 | |
dc.subject.keyword | 擴產投資行為,景氣循環,DRAM製造企業,產業分析,模擬分析, | zh_TW |
dc.subject.keyword | Capacity investment behavior,Business cycle,DRAM manufacturing industry,Industry analysis,Simulation analysis, | en |
dc.relation.page | 79 | |
dc.rights.note | 有償授權 | |
dc.date.accepted | 2010-07-19 | |
dc.contributor.author-college | 工學院 | zh_TW |
dc.contributor.author-dept | 工業工程學研究所 | zh_TW |
顯示於系所單位: | 工業工程學研究所 |
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