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完整後設資料紀錄
DC 欄位 | 值 | 語言 |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.advisor | 林建甫(Chien-Fu Lin) | |
dc.contributor.author | Chih-Kang Ting | en |
dc.contributor.author | 丁至剛 | zh_TW |
dc.date.accessioned | 2021-06-15T04:17:55Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2012-12-09 | |
dc.date.copyright | 2009-12-09 | |
dc.date.issued | 2009 | |
dc.date.submitted | 2009-12-08 | |
dc.identifier.citation | 王素彎﹙1987﹚,「存貨與景氣的關係-兼論中美資料的比較」,《經濟前瞻》,第五號,54-57。
范志勇﹙2009﹚,《開放條件下中國貨幣政策的選擇》,北京:中國人民大學出版社。 Akhtar, M. A. (1983), “Effect of interest rates and inflation on aggregate inventory investment in the United States, ” The American Economic Review, Vol.73, No.3, pp.319-328. Barro, R. J. and H. I. Grossman. (1971), “A General Disequilibrium Model of Icome and Employment, ” American Economic Review, Vol. 61, March, 82-93. Blinder, Alan S. (1980), “Inventories in the Keynesian Macro Model, ” NBER Working Paper, No. 460. (1981), “Retail Inventory Behavior and Business Fluctuations, ” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 1981, No. 2, pp. 443-520. (1981), “Inventories and the Structure of Macro Models, ” The American Economic Review, Vol. 71, No. 2, pp. 11-16. (1982), “Inventories and Sticky Price: More on the Microfoundations of Macroeconomics, ” The American Economic Review, Vol. 72, No. 3, pp. 334-348. (1986), “Can the Production Smoothing Model of Inventory Behavior be Saved?” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 101, No. 3, pp.431-453. (1986), “More on the Speed of Adjustment in Inventory Models, ” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 18, No. 3, pp. 355-365. Blinder, Alan S. and Douglas. Holtz-Eakin (1984), “Inventory Fluctuations In the United States since 1929, ” NBER Working Paper, No. 1371. Blinder, Alan S. and Louis J. Maccini (1990), “The Resurgence of Inventory Research: What Have We Learned, ” NBER Working Paper, No. 3408. Blinder, Alan S. and S. Fischer (1981), “Inventories, rational expectations and the business cycle, ” Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 8, November, pp. 277-304. Bosworth, Barry, James Duesenberry and Arthru M. Okun (1970), “Analyzing Inventory Investment, ” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 1970, No. 2 pp. 207-234. Evans, Michael K. (1969), “Macroeconomics activity theory, forecasting, and control, ” New York: Harper & Row,, Ch. 8. Fair, Ray C. (1961), “The Production-Smoothing Model is Alive and Well, ” Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 24, No. 3, pp. 353-370. Feldstein, Martin S. and Alan J. Auerbach (1978), “Inventory Fluctuations, Temporary Layoffs and the Business Cycle, ” NBER Working Paper, No. 0259. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C., George R. Moore and Scott D. Schuh (1995), “Estimating the linear-quadratic inventory model Maximum likelihood versus generalized method of moments, ” Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 35, No. 1, pp. 115-157. Galeotti, Marzio, Louis J. Maccini and Fabio Schiantarelli (2005), “Inventories, employment and hours, ” Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 52, No. 1, pp. 575-600. Khan, Aubhik and Julia K. Thomas (2007), “Inventories and the Business Cycle: An Equilibrium Analysis of (S, s) Policies, ” American Economic Review, Vol. 97, No. 4, pp. 1165-1188. Kitchin, Joseph (1923), “Cycles and Trends in Economic Factors, ” The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 5, No. 1, pp. 10-16. Lovell, Michael (1961), “Manufacturers’ Inventories, Sales Expectations, and the Acceleration Principle, ” Econometrica, Vol. 29, No. 3, pp. 293-314. Lubik, Thomas A. and Massimiliano Marzo (2007), “An inventory of simple monetary policy rules in a New Keynesian macroeconomic model, ” International Review of Economics & Finance, Vol. 16, pp. 15-36. Ramey, Valerie A. and Daniel J. Vine (2004), “Why Do Real and Nominal Inventory-Sales Ratios Have Different Trends? ” NBER Working Paper, No. 10703. Ramey, Valerie A. and Kenneth D. West (1997), “Inventories, ” NBER Working Paper, No. 6315. Reagan, Patricia B. (1982), “Inventory and Price Behaviour, ” The Review of Economic Studies Ltd, Vol. 49, No. 1, pp. 137-142. Reagan, Patricia B. and Dennis P. Sheehan (1985), “The Stylized Facts about Behavior of Manufacturers’ Inventories and Backorders Over the Business Cycle: 1959 - 1980, ” Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 15, No. 2, pp. 217-246. Rubin, Laura S. (1979), “Aggregate Inventories Behavior: Response to Uncertainty and Interest Rates, ” Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Vol. 2, Winter 1979/1980. | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/45396 | - |
dc.description.abstract | 本論文主要在討論廠商的存貨行為對於景氣循環的影響性,並在探討存貨行為時發現,廠商將存貨分為三個部分來考慮,分別為製成品、半成品與原材料,並從文獻中得知在存貨的三種型式中,製成品的波動最小,半成品為其次,原料的波動最大,因此我們希望能分別找出此三種存貨對於景氣循環的波動貢獻;然而在存貨占GDP比重過低的情況下,政府與各機構對存貨的記錄並不重視,以致於存貨資料不夠齊全難以分析;有鑒於此,我們試著尋找能間接觀察存貨變動的因素,並發現到廠商的原料成本具此特性,因廠商在面對生產時,依理來看預計生產多少產品就需購買並持有一定比例的原料,然而資源有限下導致原物料供給彈性低價格變異大,加上其最易於儲存及轉賣,顯露出投機特性,廠商為了極小化其成本,很可能在預期景氣復甦或衰退前囤積或拋售原材料,並導致總存貨的變化;也因此我們將觀察的焦點轉移至廠商的生產成本,觀察當原料、半成品及成品之成本變動時,是否對其經營決策(包含存貨水準、生產計劃以及人員聘僱等)有所影響,並導致景氣的波動。
本文所探討的變數主要有存貨、製造業生產指數以及三階段的躉售物價指數,另外亦參考文獻資料中所討論過的利率、貨幣政策變數以及代表通膨的消費者物價指數等;研究上將以向量自我迴歸模型(VAR)來分析,並對各變數做衝擊反應函數與變異數分解,來探究各變數間之短期相互影響行為。 | zh_TW |
dc.description.abstract | This paper is focus on the behavior of inventories for the business cycle effects. We found that inventory investment will be considered differently in three step, final goods, semi-finished and raw materials, and the latest causes the largest fluctuation. So we hope to analyze the contributions for each business cycle fluctuations. Unfortunately, to aggregate the data on inventory is not easy due to it’s low proportion to GDP. For the reason, we try to find out the other cause for the inventory huge fluctuation. Raw material is like to be the key. In production, material is necessary. However the variance on it is so large due to it’s inelastic. Firms will buy in the material to stock as he expects tomorrow is better and sell the material out if he does not believe the beauty future. They cause the material price higher and higher or slump. Hence that we included three steps of WPI into our model and analyze the relationship between the variables. It is wonder that the relation between WPI-material and certain macroeconomic variables including inventories is very strong and obvious. So we conclude that firms inventory investment influence the material price and it cause the business unstable.
The VAR model will be the main method used to investigate the relationship. The variables in our model are manufacture inventory, MPI, WPI material, WPI semi-goods, WPI finished, CPI, M2 and interest rate etc. | en |
dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2021-06-15T04:17:55Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ntu-98-P96323019-1.pdf: 2100426 bytes, checksum: b99c7f7e587446ce00a31671ffca69fb (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009 | en |
dc.description.tableofcontents | 口試委員會審定書……………………………………………………………………i
誌謝……………………………………………………………………………………ii 中文摘要……………………………………………………………………………iii 英文摘要………………………………………………………………………………iv 第一章 緒論…………………………………………………………………………1 1.1 研究動機與目的……………………………………………………………1 1.2 研究方法與架構……………………………………………………………1 第二章 文獻回顧……………………………………………………………………3 2.1 存貨與景氣循環………………………………………………………………3 2.2 存貨行為與相關變數…………………………………………………………3 2.3 利率、通膨與預期行為………………………………………………………4 2.4 存貨調整速度…………………………………………………………………5 2.5 模型均衡………………………………………………………………………7 第三章 研究方法……………………………………………………………………9 3.1 定態與非定態數列�單根檢定………………………………………………9 3.2 落後期數選擇……………………….………………………………….……10 3.3 VAR 向量自我迴歸模型……………………………………………………12 3.3.1 VAR的三種型式……………………………………………………12 3.3.2 非定態轉定態…………………………………………………………12 3.3.3 衝擊反應函數IRF……………………………………………………13 3.3.4 變異數分解………………...…………………………………………14 第四章 實證分析………………………………………………………………….15 4.1 模型設定與變數選擇………………………………………………………15 4.2 實證流程……………………………………………………………………..17 4.3 單根檢定………………………………………………………………………18 4.4 落後期數選擇………………………………………………………………22 4.5 衝擊反應函數與變異數分解.………………………………………………23 第五章 結論與建議………………………………………………………………46 5.1 結論………………………………………………………………………………46 5.2 研究建議…………………………………………………………………………47 附錄一 實證變數經HP filter過濾後波動部分之變異數分解.…………………49 參考文獻………………………………………………………………………………52 | |
dc.language.iso | zh-TW | |
dc.title | 存貨投資行為與景氣循環之關係 | zh_TW |
dc.title | Inventory Investment
and The Business Cycle | en |
dc.type | Thesis | |
dc.date.schoolyear | 98-1 | |
dc.description.degree | 碩士 | |
dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 林金龍,吳中書,郭平欣,姚睿 | |
dc.subject.keyword | 存貨,景氣循環,躉售物價,向量自我迴歸模型,衝擊反應函數,變異數分解, | zh_TW |
dc.subject.keyword | inventory,business cycle,variance decomposition,WPI,VAR,IRF, | en |
dc.relation.page | 55 | |
dc.rights.note | 有償授權 | |
dc.date.accepted | 2009-12-08 | |
dc.contributor.author-college | 社會科學院 | zh_TW |
dc.contributor.author-dept | 經濟學研究所 | zh_TW |
顯示於系所單位: | 經濟學系 |
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