運用預留產能以緩解供應鏈需求風險之探討

Abstract

風險管理對於在產品需求、製造流程和零組件供應有高度不確定性的供應鏈來說，是十分熱門的議題。根據不確定性的嚴重程度，動態事件的影響可區分為偏移、擾動和災難。在短-中期，論文重點著眼在公司希望找出一些控制政策以在規劃期間內緩解擾動的影響。而因為偏移是持續存在而不斷發生的，所以公司傾向於找出一些長期策略去分攤風險，屬於長期的風險管理。本論文主要研究重點在於運用產能預留策略緩解需求風險。 在短-中期的風險管理，本論文利用一個用來描述滿載的供應鏈的動態系統模型，去管理擾動型事件。並使用來自配送通路的需求急單衝擊，當作一種擾動事件的範例。同樣也描述了複雜製造節點的滿載生產函數的建立流程，並且推導出此動態模型的分析解。這個模型可被用來將擾動型事件，消弭並控制成為偏移型事件，並且強化風險管理。在長期的風險管理，本論文建立一個高科技製造業的供應鏈可能組態變化，所引發的相關產業經濟的理論架構。所探討的案例為成立於有效製造廠商和流程技術廠商間的錐形技術─製造聯盟。並且利用相關的產業經濟分析技巧，去了解技術授權、製造效能、風險分攤、和需求不確定性的相關因子所造成的影響。最後，利用此方法去研究聯盟的穩定性，了解當有潛在競爭者進入時，原先聯盟的存續性與廠商應採取的策略。

Risk management is a major concern in supply chains that have high levels of uncertainty in product demand, manufacturing process or part supply. Depending on the nature and severity of uncertainty, the impact of dynamic events can be distinguished into three categories: deviation, disruption, and catastrophe. At the short/medium-term level, firms want to find some control policy to mitigate the impact disruption. At the long-term level, firms tend to find some strategy to pool the risks. This dissertation focuses on demand risk mitigation by reserved capacity. For short/medium-term risk management, a dynamic system model of supply chains which can be applied to managing disruptive events in full-load states of manufacturing chains. An example of disruptive events is given which arises from demand shocks in distribution channel. Analytic optimal solution is derived for the dynamic model. This model can be used to reduce what could have been a disruptive event into a deviation event, thus enhancing risk management. For long-term risk management, we present theoretical work on production economics of possible configuration changes in supply chains of high-tech manufacturing industries. The case of tapered technology-manufacturing alliance between a process technology firm with captive manufacturing capability and an efficient manufacturing firm is considered. A framework of analysis is proposed for fusing the factors of technology licensing, manufacturing efficiency, risk sharing and demand uncertainty. The utility of the methods is also demonstrated with an analysis of alliance stability when facing potential new entrants.