以越戰風險為工具變數估計教育對薪資之影響

Abstract

本文旨在探討越南戰爭對美國越戰世代之教育程度之外生衝擊，進而對其1980 年代經濟表現造成之影響。文中採用美國於越戰期間各年各州平均陣亡人數作為一衡量越戰世代所面對戰爭風險之指標。我們利用該戰爭風險指標作為工具變數，捕捉在不同戰爭風險水準之下，年輕男性與年輕女性間大學教育程度之差異，並以此外生造成之差異估計教育對薪資所得之影響。我們發現在越戰期間不論戰爭風險對教育程度之效果，或者這些外生決定之教育程度對薪資所得之效果均為正向且顯著。藉此，我們將於越戰脈絡下對這兩項效果的認知，由目前的限於越戰彩券時期(1970 - 1972)，推廣到整個越戰(1965 -1972)。

This work intends to investigate the effect of the Vietnam War on the Vietnam Cohort’s economic performance in the 1980s through its exogenous impact on the cohort’s education choice behavior. The discussion will follow a difference-indifference approach, to see whether under higher Vietnam War risk, young males were more willing to attend college to avoid conscription, and also, how the exogenously increased education affected their future wage income. In this work, a year-state specific average casualty rate, thought of as a war risk index, is introduced as an instrumental variable to capture the explanatory power of the college education on the wage income. We find that both the war risk’s effect on the college education and the impacted college education’s on the wage income are positive and significant. These effects persisted not only in the Lottery Era, but throughout the Vietnam War Era.