OLED 技術發展趨勢與商機－論台灣廠商之應對策略

Abstract

2009年底LG預計量產15”OLED TV，Nokia、Samsung預計2010年新一款智慧型手機主面板採用AMOLED顯示器。台灣在1999年~2003年超過二十家廠商投入OLED量產行列，十年之後卻在AMOLED舞台缺席(一家實質量產中)，為什麼？ 是能力不足努力不夠? 還是事前事後功課做得太少? 歸納台灣廠商失敗的主要原因大致可分為：一.材料配方專利接近於零。二.製程know how接近於零。三.良率太低。四.TFT-LCD競爭力太強。台灣投入OLED是複製DRAM、LCD、LED模式引進量產技術，期望科技稼接開花結果。不幸的是，OLED量產技術尚不成熟，廠商涉入愈深，虧損愈大。2000年初期，單色小尺吋（＜1”）導入量產，廠商尚能承受小額虧損(因為是新事業)。 2003年0.96”PMOLED全彩面板試產，良率是由1% 起跳。 2005年良率接近65%，有大幅進步可是經濟效益不大。 2009年，廠商終於瞭解PMOLED是一條死胡同。 本研究嘗試以”產業價值創造系統(循環)”模型分析。來解釋分析OLED技術競爭態勢，以不投入基礎研究而期望跳躍式成長獲利，在現階段機會幾近於零。台灣廠商的應對策略應該是等待以避其(TFT)鋒、整併國內分散的資源、開發自主專利技術(材料)、建立談判籌碼、伺機結盟、創造新局勢。

By the end of year 2009, LG is going to launch 15” OLED TV, Nokia and Samsung are expecting to announce their new smart phone with OLED display in Q1 2010. Between 1990 and 2003, more than 20 Taiwan manufacturers announced their OLED manufacturing plan. Ten years passed, they are all absent from AMOLED AVL. Why? Are they not capable and not working hard? Or are they missing the necessary knowledge before or even after their participation? We try to make a short conclusions: a) Little organic material knowledge & patent ownership. b) Short process know-how. c) Low yield with divergence situation. d) Big competition from TFT-LCD ecosystem. In the past two decades, there are several technology license models in Taiwan, such as DRAM, LCD and LED. They are similar in technology transfer deal from the IP owners, paying for the royalty and getting protection umbrella, or paying for the manufacturing knowledge. OLED follows the same pattern, but it’s on the worst case scenario, the license of the material, material patents, process knowledge & its IP are un-mature, and which are the reasons we don’t know how to deal with. For example, in 2000, they started to manufacture ~ 1” mono PMOLED, they lost some money but still affordable. In 2003, mono came out with 70% yield and also pilot run full color PMOLED with 1% yield, and full color got improved to hit 65% two years later. However, it comes out without any economy efficiency on both time-to-market and time-to-money. Four years later, Taiwan manufacturers finally understand that there is no space for PMOLED display to make any profits from the relative applications. PMOLED totally loses its position & timing on the deserved market. This study tries to use “Value Create System (Cycle) VCC” model as an analysis tool, to analyze the competition. Why Taiwan’s OLED failed? VCC may explain, without meaningful technology development there is little chance to get any profits. Our recommend of best strategy should be: a) Wait for a while, TFT-LCD is too strong today. b) Integrate the existing resources, which are spread in several early involved companies. c) Develop our own IPs, either process and/or material. d) Create bargaining power, looking for alliance to create higher value added.