若干水庫序率規劃模式之探討

Abstract

針對水庫規劃問題，包括水庫容量規劃或是最佳操作分析，有許多模式提出來，在此對二類共四個水庫規劃模式作探討。文中首先說明確定性的線性供水規則下水庫容量規劃模式，若利用其位勢網絡圖，能以高效率的演算來求解水庫規劃問題。然後探討機遇限制性的線性供水規則下水庫容量規劃模式，考慮在ㄧ定可靠度進水量下的水庫最小容量問題，它可利用一般的線性規劃求解，但是本文將原機遇限制性模式轉換到上述位勢網絡模式，故可用高效率的位勢網絡法來求解。 另一類模式是馬可夫決策模式，根據不同的狀態變數與進水資料機率，可有不同類型，本文介紹其中二種。它們皆考慮水庫的最大收益或是最小成本，以決定其最佳操作。本文以動態規劃、策略迭代法與線性規劃三個方法求解其中一模式的案例。 最後，以確定性與機率限制性兩線性供水規則下水庫容量規劃模式應用於明德水庫，並利用位勢網絡法求解機遇限制性模式，其結果不僅相近且效率非常高。

Four models for analysis of reservoir capacity or operation are studied. Two models, both with an incorporated linear decision rule, are for the preliminary estimation of required reservoir capacity. One of these two models is deterministic while the other is chance-constrained. The latter can be converted to the former and solved by an efficient potential network. The other two of the four models are for the cost-effective operations of reservoirs. Both models are in the form of Markovian decision process, but the state variables and the streamflow probabilities are treated differently. The first two models are applied in the reliability analysis of capacity.of MinTeh reservoir.