區域經濟收斂、人力資本與空間外溢效應：台灣，1991-2001

Abstract

本研究由空間觀點切入，以台灣1991年至2001年的工商及服務業普查與戶口及住宅普查資料，利用探索式空間資料分析與空間計量經濟方法，探討空間外溢效應與人力資本對經濟成長的影響。研究結果顯示1.傳統非空間模型忽略空間要素，導致其估計結果有所偏誤；2.支持σ收斂與β收斂假說，區域勞動生產力不均程度逐漸縮小，且起始生產力較低的區域，後續經濟成長速度較快；3.人力資本存量愈高的區域，其經濟成長率愈高；4.空間延遲模型估計結果表明空間外溢效應有顯著的影響，鄰近經濟成長率高的區域，有利於提升本身的經濟表現；5.空間外溢效應具有異質性，其於人口密集區的影響效果大於人口稀疏區域。

The present thesis is an attempt to provide additional information on the spatial aspect of convergence. Using industry, commerce and service census and population and housing census data, we investigate the effects of spatial spillovers and human capital on labor productivity growth with exploratory spatial data analysis and spatial econometric methods. The empirical results indicate 1. The non-spatial models applied to analyse β-convergence suffer from a misspecification due to omitted spatial dependence. 2. There are α-convergence and β-convergence. Regional labor productivity between townships declined from 1991 to 2001. Poor townships displayed faster economic growth rates than wealthy ones. 3. Townships with higher average levels of human capital grow faster. A 1% increase in a township concentration of college-educated employees was associated with a 0.9% increase in subsequent labor productivity growth. 4. The estimation results of spatial lag models indicate spatial spillover effects matter for regional economic growth. Regions can significantly benefit from high economic growth in neighboring regions. 5. There are regional differences in the substantive spatial dependences. The spatial spillover effect is stronger in densely populated regions than in sparsely populated regions.