貿易流量與要速流動是替代關係還是互補關係-以台灣為例

Abstract

貿易流量與要素流動是替代關係還是互補關係，是一個長久以來的爭論。理論模型給的答案是模糊的，因此我嘗試使用台灣地區的資料來看看台灣的貿易流量與要素流動是何種關係。 我仿照Kar-yiu Wong（1988）的方式，藉由估計淨出口的要素存量彈性來斷定貿易流量與要素流動是替代關係還是互補關係。我的基本模型與Feenstra and Looi Kee（2006）相似。 我的結論為：當某些外在的衝擊使得資本移入台灣，電機、機械、塑膠產業的淨出口將會提高，資本價格降低，勞動價格提高；當某些外在的衝擊使得勞動存量移入台灣，電機產業的淨出口可能會提高，機械產業的淨出口可能會提高，塑膠產業的淨出口將會提高，勞動價格降低，資本價格提高。

Whether trade and factor mobility is complement or substitute is a lasting debate.The outcome of theortical model is also ambigious,so I try to use data in Taiwan to see the relationship between international trade and factor mobility in Taiwan.

I judge whether trade and factor mobility is complement or substitute by estimating the factor stock elasticity of net export,which is similar to the way brought up by Kar-yiu Wong (1988).My theoritical model is similiar to Feenstra and Hiau Looi Kee (2006). My conclusion is that when the exogenous shock makes capital flow into Taiwan,the net export of engineering and plastic increase,the net export of machinery falls, it lowers the price of capital and raise the pirce of labor;when the exogenous shock makes labor flow into Taiwan,the net export of engineering falls, the net export of machinery and plastic increase, it lowers the price of labor and raise the price of capital.