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| DC 欄位 | 值 | 語言 |
|---|---|---|
| dc.contributor.advisor | 孫志鴻 | |
| dc.contributor.author | Wei-LI Hsu | en |
| dc.contributor.author | 徐葦莉 | zh_TW |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2021-06-14T17:06:40Z | - |
| dc.date.available | 2009-08-05 | |
| dc.date.copyright | 2008-08-05 | |
| dc.date.issued | 2008 | |
| dc.date.submitted | 2008-07-29 | |
| dc.identifier.citation | 李萬凱、白仁德 (2003) 地理資訊系統空間資料庫網格化轉換作業之研
究， 2003 四學會聯合論文研討會 林峰田、林建元、孫志鴻、李培芬、李萬凱、林士鴻 (2002) 宮格自動 機於土地利用變遷模擬之結合機制， 2002 中華地理資訊學會年會 冀資訊研討會 孫志鴻、林峰田、林建元、李培芬、李萬凱 (2004) 國土規劃與土地區 位之研究－ 以台北都會區為例，國科會永續會2004 年永續展科技 與政策研討會。 鄒克萬、張曜麟 (2004) 都市土地使用變遷空間動態模型之研究，地理 學報， 35 : 35-51。 Alonso, W., (1964) Location and Land Use, Harvard University Press: Cambridge, MA. Anas, A. (1983) Discrete choice theory, information theory and the multinomial logit and gravity models, Transportation Research B, 17: 13-23. Anas, A. (1998) NYMTC Transportation Models and Data Initiative, The YMTC Land Use Model, Alex Anas & Associates: Williamsville, NY. Cervero, R. (1996) Jobs-Housing Balance Revisited: Trends and Impacts in the San Francisco Bay Area, Journal of the American Planning Association, 62: 492–511. De la Barra, T. (1982) Modelling regional energy use: a land use, transport and energy evaluation model, Environment and PlanningB, 9: 429-443. De Palma, A., Motamedi K., Picard, N., Waddell, P. 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(2006) Simulating the effect of light rail on urban growth in Phoenix: An application of the UrbanSim modeling environment, Journal of Urban Technology, 13 (2): 91-111. Landis, J. D. (1994) The California Urban Futures Model: a new generation of metropolitan simulation models, Environment and Planning, 21B: 399-422. Landis, J.D. (1995) Imaging land use futures: applying the California Urban Futures Model. Journal of the American Planning association, 61 (4): 438-457. Lee, D. B. (1994) Retrospective on large-scale urban models, Journal of the American Planning Association, 60 (1): 35-40. Leotief, W. (1967) Input-output economics. Oxford University Press, New York. Lin, C.Y., Lee, W. K. (2002) Application of Urban Simulation in Evaluation of Infrastructure Projects-An Experiment of UrbanSim in Taipei Area, Program of International Symposium on Urban Planning, Taipei, Taiwan. Lowry, I. S. (1964) A model of metropolis, Santa Monica, CA: Rand Corp. Martínez, F. J. (1992b) The Bid-Choice Land Use Model: An Integrated Economic Framework, Environment and Planning A, 24: 871-885. McFadden, D. (1978) Modeling the choice of residential location in spatial interaction theory andplanning models, Spatial Interaction Theory and Planning Models. eds. by Karlqvist, A., Lundqvist, L., Snickars F., and Wiebull J. W., Amsterdam, North Holland: 7-96. Meyer, M. D., Miller, E. J. (2001) Urban Transportation Planning, ED2. Nagel, K., Beckman, R., Barrett, C. (1999) TRANSIMS for urban planning. Tech, Los Alamos National Laboratory. Nelson, A. (1992) Effects of Elevated Heavy-Rail Transit Stations on House Prices with Respect to Neighborhood Income, Transportation Research Record, 1359: 127–132. Noth, M., Borning, A., Waddell, P. (2003) An Extensible, Modular Architecture for Simulating Urban Development, Transportation, and Environmental Impacts, Environment and Urban System, 27 (2): 181-203. Putman, S. H. (1994) Integrated land use and transportation models: an overview of progress with DRAM and EMPAL, with suggestions for further research, The 73rd Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board: Washington, DC, USA. Robels, B. S. (1998) The Role of Infrastructure investment in Development : Some Macro economic Considerations, International Journal of Transportation Economics, 25 (2): . Southworth, F. (1995) A technical review of urban land-use-transportaton models as tools for evaluating vehicle travel reduction strategies, TN: Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Timmermans, H. (2003) The saga of integrated land use–transport modelling: how many more dreams before we wake up, 10th IATBR Conference: Lucerne, Switzerland. Waddell, P. (2002) UrbanSim: modeling urban development for land use, transportation and environmental planning, Journal of the American Planning Association, 68(3): 297-314. Waddell, P., Borning, A., Noth, M., Freier, N., Becke, M., Ulfarsson, G., (2000) UrbanSim reference guide, version 0.9. Available from http://www.urbansim.org Waddell, P., Borning, A., Noth, M., Freier, N., Becke, M., and Ulfarsson, G (2003) Microsimulation of urban development and location choices: Design and Implementation of UrbanSim, Network and Spatial Economics, 3 (1): 43-67. Waddell, P., and Ulfarsson, G. F. (2004) Introduction to Urban Simulation: Design and Development of Operational Models, Pergamon Press: St Louis, MO. Wegener, M. (1982a) A multilevel economic-demographic model for the Dortmund Region, Sistemi Urbani, 3: 371-401. Wegener, M. (1994) Operational urban model: State of the Art, Journal of American Planning Association, 60 (1): 17-30. Wingo, L. (1961) Transportation and urban land. The Johns Hopkins University Press: Baltimore, Maryland. 宮本和明、Vichiensan, V.、杉木直、北詰恵一 (2006) 先進諸国におけ る都市モデルの適用状況－ 土地利用モデルを中心として－ ， 土 木計画学研究講演集， 33。 野澤和行 (2003) マルチモーダルな交通計画の評価手法に関す る研究－ 英国のアプローチ－ ， 国土交通政策研究第１ ８ 号。 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/40917 | - |
| dc.description.abstract | 隨著人口的增長與發展， 都市的土地利用變遷研究重要性也漸
增， 影響都市的因子除了自然環境條件與資源限制外， 還包括都市發展過程中各種社會經濟因素彼此互動的影響， 進而反應在地用及產業型態上， 塑造出不同的都市型態與空間結構。土地利用和交通模型約在1960 年代初具雛形， 但要到1990 年代後， 各種都市綜合模擬模型才開始蓬勃發展， 進年電腦科技的進步提供處理數量龐大的空間資料 時所需之空間分析、處理、計算、儲存等能力， 對土地利用變遷的空 間分析研究有相當大的幫助， 本研究比較近年數個都市模擬模型之優 缺點後， 試選用Urbansim 模型應用在台北市地區。 華盛頓大學所發展的UrbanSim 都市模型，以動態不平衡 (dynamic disequilibrium) 為假設， 結合交通、土地利用、人口變遷、市場供需 等各種因子， 模擬都市的動態發展， 並從不同參與者的角度探討不同 的決策行為， 分析不同決策方案對都市產生的影響。本研究嘗試建立 模型之資料庫， 探討台北都會區之時空變化， 對台北都會區在在各種 建設與政策方案下的土地利用變遷過程有進一步的了解， 以提供相關 規劃與決策者參考之用。應用之成果在台北市整體部分模擬準確率約 為75%， 士林、大同、中正、松山可高達90%以上， 但北投、信義則 分別只有22%和45%， 推論與事件設定有關。模型結果在都市模擬上 具有應用價值， 可提供細部時空間的變化模擬資料， 供決策者使用， 但因資料量大且處理複雜， 未來建議配合更有效率的處理工具。 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract | According to the development of society and increasing population,
the role land use change research played is getting much more important. Except natural environment condition and resource constrains, there are some socioeconomics factors to interact with others to form the diversity of city pattern and spatial structure. The land use and transportation model developed at 1960s and boomed at the later half of 1990s. In the recent, the improving computer science provides the analyzing, dealing, calculating, and storing abilities for a large number of spatial data. It helps many researchers to develop the land use model. This study compared some of recently urban simulation model and choose Urbansim model to apply in Taipei city case study. The Urbansim model developed from Washington university research group is supposed as dynamic disequilibrium theory, witch combine with transportation, land use, population, and market factors to simulate the city development, discuss the decision behaviors of actors and analyze the impact by different scenarios. This study tries to built up the database support to Urbansim model, discuss the time-spatial transition of Taipei city and provide information for decision makers. The accuracy of whole city employer population is 75%, with 90% of Shih-lin, Ta-tung, Chung-cheng, Sung-shan district, while only 22% in Pei-tou and 45% in Hsin-yi district cause of the user define event. The Urbansim model is meritorious in urban simulation in providing detail spatial data for the decision makers. It was commanded to collocate with efficiency tool to deal with abundant data the model need. | en |
| dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2021-06-14T17:06:40Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ntu-97-R95228004-1.pdf: 4716195 bytes, checksum: 58f1b59061f32ae68927ce14a82b29bb (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008 | en |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 誌謝.................................................................................................... I
摘要................................................................................................... II 英文摘要........................................................................................... III 圖目錄.............................................................................................. VII 表目錄............................................................................................... IX 第一章 緒論................................................................................... 1 第一節 研究動機......................................................................... 2 第二節 研究目的......................................................................... 4 第二章 文獻回顧........................................................................... 5 第一節 都市模型的回顧.............................................................. 5 2.1.1 都市模型的發展與簡介................................................... 6 2.1.2 都市模型的比較與分析................................................... 9 2.1.3 選用UrbanSim 的原因.................................................. 15 第二節 UrbanSim 模型的介紹.................................................... 17 2.2.1 模型假設與因子........................................................... 17 2.2.2 UrbanSim 之架構與子模型............................................ 22 第三節 UrbanSim 的應用實例.................................................... 28 第四節 小結.............................................................................. 32 第三章 研究方法與流程.............................................................. 33 第四章 模型應用與分析.............................................................. 35 第一節 資料蒐集....................................................................... 35 第二節 網格分派作業................................................................ 39 第三節 UrbanSim 系統操作........................................................ 43 4.3.1 基年資料之設置........................................................... 44 4.3.2 方案資料設置.............................................................. 52 第五章 結果與討論....................................................................... 55 第一節 初步結果....................................................................... 55 第二節 模型修正....................................................................... 67 第六章 結論與建議....................................................................... 72 參考文獻......................................................................................................................... 75 圖2-1 供給與需求之均衡決定圖.................................................................................... 10 圖2-2 總效用及邊際效用曲線圖.................................................................................... 11 圖2-3 UrbanSim的動態交互影響................................................................................... 18 圖2-4 內外因子之交互影響與關聯................................................................................ 21 圖2-5 UrbanSim都市模擬系統之架構........................................................................... 23 圖2-6 美國MPO使用之都市模型分布(宮本和明等, 2006) .......................................... 28 圖2-7 1994 Eugene-Springfield地區的居住與非居住空間分布(Waddell, 2003).......... 29 圖2-8 1999 年和2015 年鳳凰城的家戶人口分布(Joshi et al, 2006) ............................ 30 圖3-1 研究流程圖............................................................................................................ 33 圖4-1 網格分派作業流程(李萬凱等, 2003) ................................................................... 36 圖4-3 Von Neumann 4 鄰近及擴充型............................................................................. 39 圖4-4 以Object-Oriented觀念為演算核心...................................................................... 40 圖4-5 模擬作業程序........................................................................................................ 44 圖4-6 my.scenario之設定................................................................................................. 53 圖5-1 Urbansim結果之視覺化展示(一) ......................................................................... 60 圖5-2 Urbansim結果之視覺化展示(二) ......................................................................... 60 圖5-3 1991-2001 年台北市就業人數變化之模擬值與實際值對照............................. 61 圖5-4 1991-2001 年台北市就業人數變化之模擬值與實際值對照............................. 61 圖5-5 模型分區準確率.................................................................................................... 63 圖5-6(A) 1994 年小尺度的網格模擬情況..................................................................... 65 圖5-6(B) 1999 年小尺度的網格模擬情況..................................................................... 65 圖5-6(C) 2004 年小尺度的網格模擬情況..................................................................... 66 圖5-6(D) 2009 年小尺度的網格模擬情況..................................................................... 66 圖5-7 各方案之模擬成果展示........................................................................................ 69 圖5-7（續） 各方案之模擬成果展示............................................................................ 70 圖6-1 各方案之精準度.................................................................................................... 73 表2-1 比較五個近年來較常被使用的都市模擬模型.................................................... 13 表2-2 影響都市發展的決策者與選擇行為.................................................................... 19 表2-3 UrbanSim各模組依其發展理論分類表............................................................... 26 表4-1 台北市土地使用分區管制規則............................................................................ 37 表4-2 每年就業人口控制總量之產業別設定................................................................ 45 表4-3 台北市土地使用分區管制規則有關建蔽率容積率庭院等規定一覽表............ 47 表4-4 Urbansim土地使用分類與台北市土地使用分類對照表.................................... 49 表5-1 1991、1996、2001 年之就業變化率................................................................... 62 表5-2 1991、1996、2001 年之就業變化率................................................................... 64 表5-3 各方案之就業模擬值............................................................................................ 68 表5-4 各方案之與實際值對照之精準度........................................................................ 71 | |
| dc.language.iso | zh-TW | |
| dc.subject | 多項邏輯特模型 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 都市模型 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | Urbansim 網絡分派 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 動態不均衡模擬 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | Urban simulation model | en |
| dc.subject | Multinomial logit model | en |
| dc.subject | grid assignment dynamic disequilibrium | en |
| dc.subject | Urbansim | en |
| dc.title | 試應用都市模擬模型Urbansim於台北市 | zh_TW |
| dc.title | The Application of Urban Simulation Model Urbansim to Taipei City | en |
| dc.type | Thesis | |
| dc.date.schoolyear | 96-2 | |
| dc.description.degree | 碩士 | |
| dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 朱子豪,周學政,孫志鴻 | |
| dc.subject.keyword | 都市模型,Urbansim 網絡分派,動態不均衡模擬,多項邏輯特模型, | zh_TW |
| dc.subject.keyword | Urban simulation model,Urbansim,grid assignment dynamic disequilibrium,Multinomial logit model, | en |
| dc.relation.page | 78 | |
| dc.rights.note | 有償授權 | |
| dc.date.accepted | 2008-07-29 | |
| dc.contributor.author-college | 理學院 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author-dept | 地理環境資源學研究所 | zh_TW |
| 顯示於系所單位： | 地理環境資源學系 | |
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