台灣總體計量模型之少子化與人口老化探討

Abstract

近年來，少子化與人口老化問題成為全球熱門討論的議題，人口金字塔型逐漸由正三角形(老年人口少，幼年人口多)轉變為倒三角形(老年人口多，幼年人口少)。由於醫療水準的進步，人們平均壽命不斷延長，加上教育普及、普遍晚婚，造成生育率逐年下滑，加速人口老化，使青壯年人口的經濟負擔越來越重。人口結構改變，將會對未來經濟造成影響。 本論文目的為運用統計迴歸、時間序列的方式建立一個大型的台灣總體計量模型，並考慮生育率、國內生產毛額當中的醫療保健類改變，會對整體經濟帶來如何的衝擊。 本模型從需求面開始出發，由於部分資料的樣本數較少，所以以類似的資料作代替。模型中加入人口結構部門，希望可以更精準的將人口結構改變對於總體經濟的影響反映出來。 本模型一共有77 條方程式和97個變數。模型樣本期間為1990年第三季到2010年第三季，且預測2010年第四季到2013年第四季的經濟走勢。最後提出生育率與人口老化將對總體經濟造成哪些影響以及建議未來模型可以改善的地方。

In recent years, declining birthrate and aging population is the hot topics for discussion in the world. The population pyramid gradually transforms from the triangle (fewer elderly population, more young population) into the inverted triangle (more elderly population, fewer young population). Due to advanced in medical standard, the average life extension, with universal education, later marriage in general, resulting in declining fertility, accelerated aging population, so young people feel heavy economic burden increasingly. Population structure changes will impact on future economic. The purpose of this thesis is to use statistical regression, time series approach to build a large scale macro-econometric model for Taiwan, and consider the fertility rate, gross domestic product among the health-care changes will how to impact in the overall economy. This model starting from the demand side, as part of sample data is less, so I used similar data to substitute. In this model, I add population structure department, hoping it can accurately reflect the impact in the overall economic by changing the population structure. This model includes 77 equations and 97 variables. The period is from the third season of 1990 to the third season of 2010, and generate the prediction of the economy from the forth season of 2010 to forth season of 2013. Finally, I conclude with how fertility and aging population will affect the overall economy, and the improvement of the model in the future.