基金績效與基金規模關聯性之探討

Abstract

本研究主要針對股票型基金及債券型基金之基金績效與基金規模之關聯性進行分析。根據研究資料顯示，績效好的股票型基金，其相對銷售表現非常合理且顯著；而在績效表現不好的股票型基金，其銷售之表現尚稱合理但並不顯著，主要是績效表現好的基金，投信公司會馬上將訊息傳遞給投資人，因此在銷售上比較會有立即合理的反應；至於績效表現不好的基金，雖然資訊公開，但除了法人投資人，一般投資人通常反應會落後資訊，因此，在績效與銷售關聯性之表現非常不顯著。另外，從銷售角度來觀察，銷售好的基金，其相對績效表現也是非常合理；但有二成左右之樣本，其銷售表現非常好，但其相對績效表現並不佳。經進一步了解，此部份基金大多數是屬定期定額客戶佔率很高的基金，由於此類型客戶大多是小額投資人且著眼是長期投資報酬，因此。對績效反應不會那麼快速，可以為基金帶來穩定業務來源。而銷售不好的基金，其相對績效之表現尚稱合理；但有約三成之樣本，銷售不佳但其基金績效相對表現卻很優異，經進一步了解，此部份基金大多數是因公司規模小，資源及知名度不夠。而無法將績效好的基金適當的促銷，造成績效與銷售之表現並不顯著。 而在債券型基金部分，根據研究資料顯示，不論銷售好或銷售不好之基金，其相對績效落在例外區間之比率都高於三成，主要是債券型基金報酬率之間差異不大，公司知名度、行銷及業務能力等的影響不輸於績效，因此，銷售與績效之間的攸關性似乎不是那麼絕對，造成績效與銷售之表現非常不顯著。

The major focus of this thesis is a discussion of the relationship between the performance and size of mutual funds. The scope for this research includes equity and bond funds. The result of the analysis shows that sales of good-performing equity funds also perform very well. The relationship between the performance and sales is highly correlated. For poor-performing equity funds, although performance and sales results are also related, the degree of correlation is not as high as for good-performing equity funds. The reason for the above results is due to the behavior of mutual funds management companies. Usually, when mutual funds are doing well, management companies will advantageously use this news immediately and promote the funds through all sales channels. Such promotion will typically be reflected by a rise in sales. However, when mutual funds perform poorly, management companies keep silent so that investors have to discover this information for themselves. Although performance of mutual funds is public information, retail investors sometimes neglect such information and take no action. That is the reason for the different correlation levels for these two situations. Research was also done by observing the sales side. We found sales rankings of mutual funds were related to fund performance, with top-selling funds also performing well. However, exceptions made up 20%, as indicated by funds with good sales but poor performance. According to further analysis, we found most of these exceptions were funds with a high percentage dollar-averaging’ regular monthly investment programs. Investors in such programs are usually small, retail investors with an investment focus that emphasizes long-term returns. They are not as likely as large-scale investors to periodically review their investments. Therefore, they usually will not react to performance as soon as large-scale investors. This kind of investor is a very stable business for funds. There is also a reasonable correlation between equity funds with poor sales and poor performance. However, we found that 30% of such funds were exceptions, having poor sales but good performance. According to further analysis, most of these exceptions were managed by companies with a relatively small amount of total fund assets. With limited resources and weak branding, they are often unable to successfully promote their good performing funds. For bond funds, according to research results, sales and performance are not highly correlated. The major reason is due to the very small difference of investment return for such funds. As a result, little attention is often paid to the difference. Therefore, branding and marketing ability sometimes can mitigate the difference in performance.