長鞭效應對速食業庫存影響之研究-以台灣麥當勞為例

Abstract

本研究係以個案研究法，就台灣麥當勞為例，將速食業之供應鏈流程區分為三部分：1.銷售預測，2.原物料需求規劃，3.訂貨與送貨，分析其執行現況及資訊傳遞過程。目的在探討長鞭效應如何於供應鏈流程中，對速食業之庫存產生影響。再就資訊流，作業流程及組織制度等面向，分析其產生長鞭效應問題之所在，並提出解決之道。 有關長鞭效應之成因，本研究之主要發現如下： (一) 供應鏈系統之資訊不完整、不及時，且資訊傳遞過程多為單向而片段，導致需求預估及存貨管理產生偏差。 (二) 未能提供分店每日庫存，以致供應鏈成員無法掌握系統內的及時庫存資訊，存貨控管因難。 (三) 供應鏈成員依據有限資訊進行需求預估及存貨管理，在避免斷貨及追求業績極大化的理性決策下，產生長鞭效應。 (四) 分店直營的經營模式，庫存成本不易列入分店經營績效評估，庫存管理難以落實。 本研究提出之主要解決途徑包括： (一) 透過資訊科技運用，實施分店永續盤存制，提供每日更新的及時存貨資訊。 (二) 建立及時更新、同步共享，貫通供應鏈系統的資訊流。 (三) 透過流程改造，改良銷售預測方法及原物料需求規劃作業，避免人為主觀判斷產生的長鞭效應。 (四) 採行供應商管理存貨的自動補貨制度，徹底解決直營經營模式不易落實分店庫存管理的困境。

This case study of McDonald’s Taiwan is to analyze the business implementation and information flow delivery in its supply chain processes, namely sales forecast, material planning, ordering and fulfillment. Study purpose is to understand how bullwhip effect existing in the supply chain processes impacts the inventory of Quick Service Restaurants industry, further to identify causes of bullwhip effect and propose solutions to deal with the issues in the aspects of information flow, business process and organization structure. The cause of bullwhip effect identified in this study are presented as follows： 1. Partial and time-lagged information with one-way and fragmented delivery resulted in bias on demand forecast and inventory management. 2. Unable to provide daily updated store material inventory data resulted in difficulty for inventory management. 3. Demand forecast and inventory management based on limited and biased information, together with reasonable decisions to avoid material shortage and maximize business opportunities, resulted in bullwhip effect exists in the supply chain. 4. Failed to make inventory cost as one of the key performance measures for corporate operating stores resulted in difficulty for stores to implement inventory management. Proposed and proven successful solutions to fix the problems are： 1. Build store perpetual inventory system supported by information technology, which enable to provide daily updated store material inventory data. 2. Establish timely updated, synchronously shared information flows throughout the entire supply chain members. 3. Improve sales forecast methodology and material planning operations through business process redesign, to avoid bullwhip effect caused by human judge. 4. Implement “Vendor Management Inventory”and “Auto-replenishment”system to solve the management dilemma for corporate operating stores.