可轉換公司債發行公司之後續投資支出與赴大陸投資與否之相互關係--台灣實証研究

Abstract

本篇論文根據Korkeamaki and Moore (2004)的研究，探討國內及海外可轉換公司債之發行公司以可轉換公司債的方式籌資與其後續投資支出間的關係。我們採用台灣國內及海外可轉換公司債之發行公司為樣本，依據Korkeamaki and Moore (2004)的研究模型，探討國內及海外可轉換公司債發行公司之後續投資支出是否符合McDonald and Siegel (1986)及Dixit and Pindyck (1994)等學者所提出的投資擇時理論(Optimal timing theory)。 此外，本篇論文進一步延伸Korkeamaki and Moore (2004)之研究，將整體樣本依赴大陸投資與否，區分為「中概股」以及「非中概股」族群，並採用Lee, Maddala and Trost (1980)所提出的「兩階段 Probit 移轉迴歸方法」(Two-stage Probit Method for Switching Regression)，分別探討其後續投資支出的情形。 實證結果發現，可轉換公司債之發行公司會依據等待利益(g，投資方案的預期成長率)以及等待成本(r，資金成本)來決定最佳的投資時點，此隱含可轉換公司債之發行公司將可轉換公司債視為後續融資的工具(sequential financing tool) Mayers (1998)。此外，我們發現「中概股」與「非中概股」之可轉換公司債發行公司其後續投資支出情形有明顯差異，即非中概股的可轉換公司債發行公司符合投資擇時理論；然而中概股的可轉換公司債發行公司卻不符合。我們推論或許中概股發行公司並不將可轉換公司債視為後續融資的工具，而是為了透過可轉換公司債募集到足夠的資金赴大陸投資。

This paper examines the relationship between firms’ convertible debt issuing and their subsequent capital expenditures as noted by Korkeamaki and Moore (2004). We investigate whether the subsequent capital expenditures of Taiwanese firms following their issue of convertible bond are in accordance with the theory of optimal timing proposed by McDonald and Siegel (1986) and Dixit and Pindyck (1994). As an extension to Korkeamaki and Moore (2004), this paper classified sample firms into two groups: China-concept group and non-China-concept group and did the empirical studies respectively. A two-stage Probit Model for Switching Regression proposed by Lee, Maddala and Trost (1980) is used to examine whether China-concept group and non-China-concept group exhibit different behavior on the relationship between firms’ convertible debt issuing and their subsequent capital expenditures. Our findings support that firms consider their waiting benefits (expected growth) and costs (capital costs) to time their capital investment decisions, and imply firms view convertible bonds as a sequential financing tool proposed by Mayers (1998). In addition, we find the following capital expenditure of non-China-concept firms issuing euro convertible bonds is consistent with the theory of optimal timing, while that of China-concept firms is inconsistent with the theory. That implies maybe the purpose of China-concept firms issuing euro convertible bonds is not for sequential financing needs but for other reasons, such as raising enough funds to invest in Mainland China.