地面太陽光電產業結構分析及台灣未來之發展策略

Abstract

近百年來能源ㄧ直是人類社會中主導ㄧ切發展的主要動力因素，尤其是最近三十年以來，無論是已開發或開發中國家的能源使用量都大幅增加，且傳統化石能源的儲藏量的發現又漸趨飽和，估計在本世紀內石油和天然氣的蘊藏量都將被使用殆盡；更由於這類供需不平衡形成近一年來的石油價格大幅上升，加以化石能源加速產生二氧化碳，亦間接造成地球表面溫度上升。因此，無論就能源、經濟、環境各方面來看，在未來尋求各種永續、便宜而又清潔的能源，誠屬人類刻不容緩的任務。 再生能源是目前看來最符合上述要求的候選者，而太陽光電則是再生能源中到目前為止，技術發展最為成熟，且最具潛力的能源。儘管技術上可行，然而太陽光電產業的發展，卻存在不少變數。本論文擬首先針對全球太陽光電產業，進行結構性的分析，並據以討論台灣在太陽光電產業的發展策略。 從全球光電市場在過去五年連續超過30%的成長率來看，這個產業發展的潛力無窮，然而這些成長中也不乏政府補助計畫的結果。產業界在未來十到十五年內，仍然需要投注極大的努力，即使在政府補助類項逐漸減少的情況下，也要維持同樣的成長率，這個產業才是真正光明的。 本研究認為台灣太陽光電產業發展的主要問題，在於：(1)太陽光電系統價格太高而產提升不易；(2)政府對太陽光電產業缺乏長期承諾；(3)大眾對太陽光電的了解有限，導致市場開發受阻。而解決之道在於：(1)完成再生能源之立法，制訂政策，長程計畫，及建立基礎建設以助國內太陽光電市場之開發；(2)根據既訂政策，政府有計畫的投資太陽光電之技術研發及補助計畫，以助系統售價之降低及良性循環之開啟，同時逐年提升電價以反映真實成本，並課以污染稅；(3).教科書中加入再生能源及太陽光電有關知識，以提高大眾廣泛之了解。 在發展策略上，台灣太陽光電產業需要全力開發國內市場，以培養產業發展的能力和建立完整的產業鏈，接著把國內市場延伸到中國大陸及其他開發中國家，最後，在國內太陽光電產業更趨成熟及茁壯之後，進入已開發國家的電網連結市場。整體而言，台灣的太陽光電產業還是一個剛起步的階段，亟需政府長期的承諾和政策性的支持。因為太陽光電非常符合台灣未來發展的需求，產業界和政府要像合作夥伴一樣共同設法消除產業發展的障礙和瓶頸，建立一切必要的基礎建設，把台灣太陽光電造成一個如同日本在過去十年間所證明的良性循環的產業。

Energy has attracted tremendous attention in recent years due to its immense influence to almost everything. Potential energy crisis both economically and environmentally would be serious issues for the human being within the 21st century. As one of potential renewable energy solutions for the energy issues, Terrestrial Photovoltaic (PV) Energy Conversion has become the subject of this study. This thesis is focusing on (1) the global terrestrial PV industry structure analysis, and (2) the strategies for Taiwan terrestrial PV industry development. A bright future of the PV industry would be expected due to momentum demonstrated in the global PV market, while efforts need to be sustained for the next 10 to 15 years to bring this industry to a stage of maturity. Meanwhile Taiwan PV industry, is catching up from the infancy stage, requires government’s strong support and the partnership of major stakeholders to be directed into a double virtuous cycles as demonstrated by Japanese PV industry in the past ten years. The high PV system cost and high manufacturing volume establishment, government’s long term commitment, and the awareness and availability of PV information to the end users are the major issues of Taiwan PV industry development. The major approaches and solutions for those issues are: (1). Launch renewable energy law and establish policies, roadmap, and infrastructures to facilitate domestic market expansion, (2). Government makes systematic investment plan for both technology R&D and incentive programs to initiate virtuous cycles, and systematically adjust domestic tariff of electricity and tax pollution, (3). Include renewable energy and PV knowledge in textbook to spread PV information and educate potential consumers pervasively, and consequently to enhance the awareness and availability. While resolving the major issues, Taiwan PV industry should initially focus on domestic market development to practice the process and build up complete value chain, and then extend to mainland China, especially the west areas, and other developing countries. Eventually Taiwan PV industry would be mature enough to enter the grid-connected market of the developed countries.