臺灣僅寫一次型光碟產業演進動態分析

Abstract

中 文 摘 要 台灣以優異的製造能力與快速擴展產能的策略，建立起光碟片製造的王國，總產量佔世界第一，而前幾大光碟廠皆為台灣廠商。然而，台灣光碟廠商雖然隨著市場需求而持續成長，但卻始終陷在供過於求的產業困境中，價格快速下跌，加上高額權利金負擔，讓台灣光碟廠陷入經營的窘境。本論文旨在藉由探討台灣僅寫一次型光碟(CD-R、DVDR)產業發展與技術演進，尤其是分析CD-R、DVDR前後兩代技術變遷下的產業發展異同點，從而解析廠商在技術變遷下，其對於競爭策略的學習效果，以及此一競爭動態對產業結構發展的影響。 本研究發現CD-R與DVDR在產品與製程技術發展上有明顯的學習效果。由於CD的技術發展經驗與學習效果，使得DVD產品比CD發展更順利更快速，DVD容量是CD的7倍，CD系列產品發展完整共歷經16年，而DVD系列僅歷經3年，CD-R從1倍速發展到終極52倍速共歷時12年，但DVDR從1倍速發展到終極16倍速才歷時7年。 其次，本研究以市場成長率曲線將CD-R及DVDR的產業發展劃分為六個階段：分別是，先鋒期、導入期、成長期、盤整期、成熟期、衰退期。由於CD-R及DVDR產品功能具高度替代性，應用相同製程技術，主要競爭者相同，市場結構發展與特色也極為類似：產業進入障礙低，產業集中度低，固定成本比例高，使得廠商行為傾向規模與價格競爭。在這樣的結構下，光碟廠商的經營模式與競爭策略並未因CD-R的競爭互動經驗而在DVDR競爭上有所調整，使得DVDR產業重蹈CD-R產業的覆轍，主要廠商依舊快速擴充產能，供過於求與價格戰的困境更早出現，造成DVDR產業歷經比CD-R產業更為慘烈的競爭局面。本研究據此有趣的分析，討論產業結構與競爭策略行為的關係，從而提出廠商未來的經營策略建議。

THESIS ABSTRACT GRADUATE INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS NATIONAL TAIWAN UNIVERSITY Name: Lai-Piao Kuo Month / Year: January 2006 Advisor: Dr. Ji-Ren Lee The Evolutionary Dynamics of Write-once Optical Disk Industry in Taiwan Based on rapid capacity expansion and excellent manufacturing efficiency, Taiwanese optical storage disk producers have claimed a leading position in the worldwide optical disk storage market. However, even though the demand is still going up, the market becomes over-supply and major suppliers all suffered from price competition. Given high royalty fee, major players encounter serious business loses. Taking this industry context into research, the purpose of this study is to explore the development and evolutionary dynamics of the write-once optical disk (CD-R、DVDR) industry in Taiwan. By so doing, this study attempts to analyze if there is learning effect among major players along the technological changes and competitive scenario. Our research found that from CD-R to DVDR there is significant learning effect between different generations of product and technology development. While the storage capacity of DVD is seven times more than that of CD, the product development cycles of CD and DVD are 16 to 3 years, respectively. Moreover, it took 12 years for CD-R to reach its maximum speed (i.e., 52X), while DVDR took only 7 years to reach its maximum level (i.e., 16X). Next, based on historical data, we established industry life cycles for CD-R and DVDR, respectively. Since both products employee almost the same manufacturing processes and are functionally substitute, there is a great extent of similarity in industry structure. Both industries have low entry barrier; low concentration; and high fixed cost structure. Therefore, major players exercised scale-driven strategy and price-based competition in both markets, which in turn led to deteriorated performance. There is apparently no inter-firm, inter-industry learning among players. Finally, our research offered a systematic picture of industry evolution of write-once optical storage industries, upon which implications of competition and suggestions for future research are discussed.