探討投資大陸是否會影響公司對現金的敏感度

Abstract

曾有外國投資機構預測，在不久的將來，幾乎所有的台灣公司都會變成所謂的中國概念股，因為幾乎每個公司都必須投資於中國大陸。 本論文主要的研究目的是針對台灣上市公司投資中國大陸與否對於現金的敏感度有無顯著差異。 而所謂中國概念股是指台灣上市上櫃公司有投資於中國大陸的公司稱之。 我們使用Fazzari，Hubbers和Peterson(1988)方法學並選取1998-2004為樣本時期進行實證研究。 實證研究結果顯示中國概念股相較於非中國概念股有較低的投資對現金的敏感度。 同時， 我們進一步將所有公司區分為低現金股利發放與高現金股利發放兩個組別，結果顯示低現金股利的中國概念股相較於高現金股利發放的中國概念股有較高的投資對現金的敏感度;也表示高現金股利的中國概念股，其投資對現金的敏感度比較不敏感。若以產業區分為資訊電子與非資訊電子產業，我們發現在資訊電子產業裡的中國概念股，投資對於現金的敏感度會較低。 許多中國概念股的公司不一定是直接由台灣母公司投資於中國大陸，他們會透過海外子公司或由創投來間接投資。其主要原因是因為台灣對於投資中國大陸的金額有上限的限制，所以會採取比較間接的投資方法。 至於為何產業不同會有差別，我們認為主要原因是就中國大陸投資地主國而言,為了積極發展新興高科技產業 ,在招商引資的條件都相當優渥,例如在稅負方面的減免,優惠利率的資金提供,及其他如人才的培訓與報關或交通等都提供許多便利的協助. 所以就實證的結果發現我國資訊電子產業的公司既使投資大陸也不至於影響企業的現金部位,也就是為對於現金的敏感度不高，也就不需要保留較多的內部現金以供日後投資之所需。

There is a saying by foreign institutional investors in Taiwan that in a few years Taiwan listed stocks will be all “China-concept” stocks, since no firms can survive without switching manufacturing to China. The main purpose for this research is to examine whether or not China-concept firms and non-China-concept firms will exhibit different extent of investment sensitivity to cash flow. By definition, China-concept firms are firms that are listed on the Taiwan stock market and have real investments in China. We use the Fazzari, Hubbers and Peterson (1988) methodology and collect firms’ data for the 1998-2004 period. We find strong evidence that China concept firms have lower sensitivity to cash flow than non-China concept firms. At the same time, we have evidence to show that in average China concept firms in the low dividend payout firms group tend to have higher investment sensitivity to cash flow, while high dividend ones are less sensitive. There is little evidence that China concept firms in the electronic industry have lower sensitivity to cash flow. One of the reasons may be that China concept firms don’t finance the investment through the parent company, instead they finance through oversea branches, paper companies, or venture capital. This is mainly because Taiwan’s regulations limit the total amount invested in Mainland China. Another explanation is that parent company may use rebate as a source of investment capital. As for the industry difference, we think it is mainly because China considers the high-tech industry to be important to science and technology development, therefore the local governments provide numerous incentive programs and cheaper labor. Hence, electronic firms won’t need to retain more internal cash to finance future investment projects.