國際金融業者入股大陸銀行之投資分析

Abstract

本研究透過深度訪談，利用個案探討的方式，針對近年來國際金融機構業者對大陸銀行入股投資的熱潮進行分析與探討，以了解這些投資者的策略思考，並對入股大陸銀行的購買價格、現階段投資的利益考量與可能面臨的風險進行分析，最後則對於台灣銀行業者若赴大陸投資提供發展策略相關的建議。本研究主要的研究結果如下： 一、 外國投資者主要的策略思考包含先行卡位以及新設分行困難，藉此來增加 據點；在購買價格方面，外國投資者對四大國有銀行所願出的購買價格較低，約介於1.15~1.2倍P/B Ratio 之間，非四大國有銀行之購買價格較高，約為1.5倍P/B Ratio。 二、 外國投資者可能的投資利益包含短期的承銷利益與股價上漲之資本利得以及長期的通路佈局與擴大業務等商業利益；投資風險主要包含政治風險、難以取得實質控制權以及壞帳問題與風險控管能力欠佳。 三、 針對台灣銀行業者赴大陸進行投資，目前主要的優勢在於語言、文化以及既存的台商市場；來自政治面的影響仍是台灣銀行業者前往大陸發展最大的阻力。若能解除政治面的限制，台灣銀行業者赴大陸投資可能的發展策略包含以消費金融、貿易金融業務為主，同時以大陸中小型企業融資做為市場區隔，以拓展業務。

This research discusses with the upsurge of investing in China’s banks by international financial institutions in recent years through depth interview and case study, in order to understand the strategic thinking of these investors and analyze about the purchase price of China’s banks, possible investment benefits and investment risks. And finally, give some suggestions and development strategies to the Taiwanese bankers having interests on investing in China. Research results are summarized below: 1. Foreign investors’ main strategic thinking includes increasing the stronghold due to the difficulty of increasing new branch; In purchasing prices, the prices that foreign investors are willing to offer is relatively low to the four major national banks, nearly lying between 1.15~1.2 times of P/B Ratio, the purchase prices of non- four major national banks are relatively high, is about 1.5 times of P/B Ratio. 2. Foreign investors’ possible investment benefits include underwriting commitment and capital profit from stock price rising in the short-run, and increasing the distributions and expanding the business in the long-run; possible investment risks include the political risk, difficult to obtain essence control power, the bad debt and risk control ability. 3. For Taiwanese bankers having interests on investing in China, the main advantage lies in the language, culture and Taiwanese trader who has already invested in China; The greatest obstruction for the Taiwanese bankers to invest in China comes from the influence of politics. If the political restriction politics can be removed, there are some development strategies for Taiwanese banker including relying mainly on consumer banking, trade financing, and regard financing of small and medium enterprise in China as market separation.