新興高科技產業策略發展模式的建構與應用-光電產業的分析-

Abstract

本論文研究觀察光電顯示器產業與光通訊產業的過去發展歷程趨勢，再應用經濟學供需理論的價格彈性、消費者習慣的分析、克里斯汀生的破壞性創新理論、波特產業結構理論的五力分析、及技術採用生命週期理論等進行剖析，詳細探討該兩種產業的差異點，綜合建立起新興高科技產業發展的模式。並運用該模式分析發光二極體產業與太陽能產業，獲得此二種產業的策略發展方向。 分析結果顯示光電顯示器產業已邁向成熟期，因此商業併購、策略結盟以形成寡佔市場或上下游整合以共享利益將是產業維持獲利的策略發展重點。光通訊產業自2000年泡沫化後歷經三年，至2004年整體營業額才止跌回升，不過本產業距離最終消費者遠，而採購者又有策略性考慮，所以產業回升速度緩慢，目前以光纖到家的建設最受期待，也是觀察光通訊產業的最佳角度。以發光二極體產業而言，雖然潛在的應用市場龐大，但以價格彈性分析，目前的應用已達飽和，因此如何開發落實各項應用，再刺激新需求尋找新市場，將會是最迫切需要、最值得投入的方向。太陽能產業的策略發展方向則不在尋找開拓新應用與新市場，其價格彈性仍高，而且各國政府相繼提出補貼法規，使其需求面暢旺，因此目前產業瓶頸在供給面，如何突破矽原料的有限供給、提高矽原料使用效率、或尋找替代性材料與技術才是本產業的策略發展方向。 最後期待本論文建構完成的「新興高科技產業的策略發展模式」能推廣協助培養經理人員透過理性的思考進行更宏觀更全面性的分析，以找出事先洞悉產業本質的能力，並擬定出正確發展的策略，使企業成長並提升國家競爭力。

This thesis was focused on the construction of the strategic development modeling for emerging high-technology industries by combining the price elasticity of supply-and-demand theory, consumer behavior, Christensen’s disruptive innovation, Potter’s generic competitive strategies, and the theory of technology adoption life cycle. Through the comparison of the developing trajectory of optoelectronic display industry and optical communication industry in recent years, we concluded and verified this model. Finally, this model was applied in analyzing the emerging industries of light emitting diodes and photovoltaic. According to the analyzed results, the optoelectronic display industry is stepping into the mature stage, and thus the developing strategies in this field shall be concentrated on the M&A activity, strategic alliance, and vertical integration to ensure the profitability and competitive strength. After a bubbling from year 2000, optical communication industry seemed to be stable at year 2004 and recovered slowly. The FTTH installation is the best practice and be expected to stimulate the growth of revenue in this industry. Although the future is expected to be bright in the industry of light emitting diode, the market seemed saturation from the analysis of price elasticity. The developing strategic shall be focus on creating more applications and extend the usage of this product. As for the photovoltaic industry, the demand is urgent and be expected to be continuous in the foreseeable future due to the lack of natural resources. The bottleneck in this industry is the limited supply in raw material of silicon, thus to develop alternative solutions and increase the efficiency of usage shall be the key issues. In conclusion, we wish this proposed model and the deduced developing strategies are beneficial to the executives and relative persons a better understanding and extensive visions in the optoelectronics industry.