請用此 Handle URI 來引用此文件:
http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/33012
標題: | 半導體製造之產能規劃的實質選擇權法之應用 An Application of the Real Option Method to Capacity Planning of Semiconductor Manufacturing |
作者: | Yorng-Feng Chen 陳永豐 |
指導教授: | 周雍強 |
關鍵字: | 半導體製造,實質選擇權法,產能規劃, Semiconductor Manufacturing,Real Option Method,Capacity Planning, |
出版年 : | 2006 |
學位: | 碩士 |
摘要: | 半導體製造產業具有需求不確定、產能投資成本高、技術更迭快等特性,導致競爭激烈、經營風險高,產業景氣循環現象非常劇烈,產能供給與需求經常發生失衡,產能投資的決策不僅決定經營獲利,也會影響廠商的長期競爭力,因此產能投資是廠商的重要決策,而用於產能規劃的方法有很多,而其中實質選擇權法適用於不確定性很高的環境,故本文針對半導體製造產業,為廠商分析如何將實質選擇權法應用於產能規劃上。首先以產業數據分析半導體製造的成本、需求與營收趨勢,討論不確定需求、高產能成本對產業結構的影響。其次,以營收為產能擴充的績效指標,經由實驗設計與統計方法,找出目前廠商面臨到的不確定性環境下最適切的實質選擇權使用方法,並分析影響產能規劃績效的不確定性因素與影響程度,來協助廠商進行產能決策。 The semiconductor manufacturing industry can be prominently characterized by intense competition, high capacity investment cost, rapid technology advancement and uncertain demand. Process technologies and demand are the two major sources of uncertainties so that the balance between demand and supply is hard to achieve. Because of high capacity investment cost, any mistake in capacity strategy will damage the corporation’s long-term competitiveness. There are many methods for capacity strategy planning, such as stochastic programming, optimal control, and real option method. The real option method is suitable for high uncertain industries. Hence, this thesis focuses on how a company can apply the real option method to its capacity planning, and industry data of average selling price and manufacturing costs are utilized in the analysis. This paper first describes the competition state of the industry by presenting the trends of average selling price, materials and labor cost, operating expenses, and capacity cost of representative firms in the industry. In the second part, capacity planning is analyzed by using experimental design and statistical methods under various scenarios to find a best way for application of the real option method. |
URI: | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/33012 |
全文授權: | 有償授權 |
顯示於系所單位: | 工業工程學研究所 |
文件中的檔案:
檔案 | 大小 | 格式 | |
---|---|---|---|
ntu-95-1.pdf 目前未授權公開取用 | 1.32 MB | Adobe PDF |
系統中的文件,除了特別指名其著作權條款之外,均受到著作權保護,並且保留所有的權利。