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完整後設資料紀錄
DC 欄位 | 值 | 語言 |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.advisor | 周仲島 | |
dc.contributor.author | Mei-Hsin Chen | en |
dc.contributor.author | 陳美心 | zh_TW |
dc.date.accessioned | 2021-06-13T04:11:31Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2006-07-27 | |
dc.date.copyright | 2006-07-27 | |
dc.date.issued | 2006 | |
dc.date.submitted | 2006-07-25 | |
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dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/32550 | - |
dc.description.abstract | 摘要
本論文針對美國國家衛星中心所發展短期颱風降雨預報產品:熱帶降雨潛勢Tropical Rainfall Potential (TRaP),利用中央氣象局雷達網資料所建立之QPEsums雨量估計產品進行定量降雨預報校驗分析研究。本研究首先建立定量降雨預報校驗方法,並選擇2004年敏督利(Mindulle)、艾利(Aere)、納坦(Nock-Ten)、南瑪都(Nanmadol),以及2005年海棠(Haitang)、泰利(Talim)和龍王(Longwang)等侵台颱風進行TRaP預報能力校驗分析。 校驗結果顯示TRaP預報時常低估降雨量,預報與觀測降雨率平均比值約為0.65,最大降雨率平均比值約為0.33,且TRaP時常無法正確預報降雨位置及分布,預報與觀測之相關係數平均只有0.22。在降雨門檻值為 1 mm(6h-1)時,TRaP之可偵測機率約為0.8,誤報率約為0.36,預兆得分約為0.75。TRaP預報低估降雨之原因可能為衛星反演降雨率就已經低估,也可能是TRaP未考慮台灣地形對降雨加強過程。而TRaP無法正確預報降雨分布另一個原因,可能是沒有加入颱風內部雨帶旋轉機制。 在所選取之颱風個案中,校驗結果顯示TRaP對於納坦和泰利有較好的預報,對於敏督利和南瑪都預報最差。依不同颱風路徑分類, TRaP對於由東往西直接穿越台灣之颱風預報較好。依不同微波輻射儀器之TRaP產品分類,校驗結果顯示以SSM/I反演之TRaP預報最適用於台灣之颱風降雨預報。 利用緊鄰雨區誤差分解法將誤差分解成量值誤差、分布誤差、以及位移誤差進行校驗,結果顯示TRaP在預報侵台颱風之降雨最大誤差來源為分布誤差,之後為位移誤差。此一結果符合原先的猜測,也就是TRaP中假設颱風降雨結構不隨時間改變影響雨量估計結果最為嚴重,而與地形交互作用產生的額外降雨也是TRaP無法掌握的。 | zh_TW |
dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2021-06-13T04:11:31Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ntu-95-R93229004-1.pdf: 2822430 bytes, checksum: e847e067988e9bf240b30f375072b8f0 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2006 | en |
dc.description.tableofcontents | 摘要 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ⅰ
致謝 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ⅱ 目錄 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ⅲ 表錄 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ⅵ 圖錄 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ⅷ 第一章 前言 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 1 1-1 論文回顧 ---------------------------------------------------------- 2 1-1-1 熱帶降雨潛勢預報系統(Tropical Rainfall Potential,TRaP)發展過程---------------------------- 2 1-1-2 衛星載微波輻射儀器觀測反演降雨 --------------- 3 1-1-3 TRaP於美國的校驗 ---------------------------------- 5 1-1-4 TRaP於澳洲的校驗 ---------------------------------- 7 1-2 研究動機與目的 ------------------------------------------------- 9 第二章 資料來源與處理 ------------------------------------------------- 10 2-1 資料來源 ---------------------------------------------------------- 10 2-2 資料處理 ---------------------------------------------------------- 10 2-2-1 TRaP資料處理 ---------------------------------------- 10 2-2-2 QPEsums資料處理 ----------------------------------- 11 2-2-3 TRaP與 QPEsums資料格式整合 ----------------- 12 2-2-4 個案選取 ------------------------------------------------ 12 2-3 校驗方法 ---------------------------------------------------------- 13 2-3-1 計算統計參數 ------------------------------------------ 13 2-3-2 列聯表之預報評估指標 ------------------------------ 14 2-3-3 緊鄰雨區誤差分解(Contiguous Rain Area error decomposition) ------------------------------------------ 15 2-3-4 校驗方法特性說明------------------------------------- 18 第三章 校驗結果(1) ------------------------------------------------------- 20 3-1 QPEsums資料概要說明 --------------------------------------- 20 3-2 計算統計參數與列聯表之預報評估指標--------------------- 21 3-2-1 各個颱風之校驗---------------------------------------- 21 3-2-2 不同路徑颱風之校驗 --------------------------------- 29 3-2-3 路徑2颱風於接近台灣及遠離台灣時之校驗 ---30 3-2-4 不同微波輻射儀器之校驗 --------------------------- 31 3-2-5 不同預報時段之校驗 --------------------------------- 32 3-3 小結 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 33 3-3-1 各個颱風校驗結果之綜合評論---------------------- 33 3-3-2 不同路徑校驗結果之綜合評論---------------------- 35 3-3-3 不同微波輻射儀器校驗結果之綜合評論---------- 36 3-3-4 不同預報時段校驗結果之綜合評論---------------- 36 3-3-5 TRaP與數值模式之預報能力比較 ---------------- 37 第四章 校驗結果(2) ------------------------------------------------------- 39 4-1 緊鄰雨區誤差分解結果 ---------------------------------------- 39 4-1-1 前置說明以及敏感度測試 --------------------------- 39 4-1-2 納坦颱風之緊鄰雨區誤差分解結果 --------------- 40 4-1-3 艾利颱風之緊鄰雨區誤差分解結果 --------------- 41 4-2 小結 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 43 第五章 總結 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 44 5-1 校驗結果與美國和澳洲之校驗結果比較 ------------------- 44 5-2 TRaP之未來展望 ----------------------------------------------- 45 5-3 結語 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 46 參考文獻 -------------------------------------------------------------------- 47 附表圖 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 51 附錄 重要名詞中英對照 ------------------------------------------------- 97 | |
dc.language.iso | zh-TW | |
dc.title | 熱帶降雨潛勢預報法於侵台颱風定量降雨預報之校驗分析 | zh_TW |
dc.title | Validation of Tropical Rainfall Potential (TRaP) Forecasts for Taiwan Typhoons | en |
dc.type | Thesis | |
dc.date.schoolyear | 94-2 | |
dc.description.degree | 碩士 | |
dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 陳泰然,郭鴻基,李清勝,丘台光 | |
dc.subject.keyword | 熱帶降雨潛勢,定量降雨預報,校驗,緊鄰雨區誤差分解, | zh_TW |
dc.subject.keyword | Tropical Rainfall Potential,Quantitative Precipitation Forecast,QPESUMS,Validation,Contiguous Rain Area error decomposition, | en |
dc.relation.page | 97 | |
dc.rights.note | 有償授權 | |
dc.date.accepted | 2006-07-26 | |
dc.contributor.author-college | 理學院 | zh_TW |
dc.contributor.author-dept | 大氣科學研究所 | zh_TW |
顯示於系所單位: | 大氣科學系 |
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