液晶顯示器產業之動態投資決策研究

Abstract

淨現值法與實質選擇權法是普遍被接受的資本預算評價方法。淨現值法提供了一維時間價值的評價，是二維實質選擇權法的特例。實質選擇權法提供決策者對於時間及中途策略變化彈性的連結評價。賽局理論提供了不同策略與策略之間的攸關性資訊，是第三維的投資評價。淨現值法加實質選擇權法加賽局理論形成了一個三維評價模型的理論框架。 傳統的投資評價方法是以投資者自身的策略觀點出發做靜態評估。針對各種投資情境變化，需做不同組合的假設條件後計算出一種報酬。但是這些個別發展出來的投資選擇之間有沒有策略連結則無法窺知。這對於投資像TFT-LCD之類的高度成長、但也具高度不確定性、投入後退出困難的產業來說，無法提供充分決策資訊。 本研究根據Smit and Trigeorgis（2004）的理論框架，以友達光電在2004年中所面臨的TFT-LCD產業動態為背景，針對該投資第5世代還是第6世代生產線做實例個案研究。先以一維NPV法計算出各個資本支出策略的報酬，再針對有時間遞延性的策略採二維實質選擇權評價。然後引用商數觀念的NPVq作為不同規模投資案間的評價比較基礎，建立各種賽局模型分析不同策略之間的互動關係。結果顯示，在賽局情況下的最適反應策略，不見得一定是對自身產生最高NPVq的策略；而有時間遞延性的投資策略，經由實質選擇權法評價，可揭露額外的策略彈性價值，使成為可立刻投資的策略。對照本研究分析與實際案例，決策結論不謀而合，證實三維評價模型的實用性。

The rush toward getting the latest generation of production facilities in TFT-LCD industry is like Arms races. The investment is huge and irreversible, and the cyclic market makes new investment highly volatile. For those who have been already in the competition arena, following suits in investment is the whole point. Drop behind means out of the game. Yet, how could anyone make up investment decision in project that seems hardly going to make any profits? Conventional DCF and NPV methods can only provide linear evaluation along timeline. Real option analysis expands the look into the project valuation to include not only the time-value but also the value of strategic flexibility. However, in a highly volatile competition environment, we need a third degree of evaluation method to look into the significance among interactive strategies. Game theory provides the basis of such assessments. A three-level evaluation framework introduced by Smit and Trigeorgis (2004) was employed to study an investment case of AUO in year 2004. The dilemma was making investment decision between Generation 5 or Generation 6 facilities. A quotient NPV term was adopted in this study for ranking project values of different investment strategies. Game analysis shows that equilibrium venue might not necessary converge towards the highest NPVq project plan. Nevertheless, deferral strategy creates the highest project value. Real option analysis reveals this strategic value that might otherwise being omitted.