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標題: | 火災風險量化評估與風險改善技術研究 Fire Allied Risk Evaluation and Improvement Technology Appliance |
作者: | Ching-Chin Chang 張慶進 |
指導教授: | 陳希立 |
關鍵字: | 火災風險,風險控制,風險理財,風險評級,風險基礎檢測, Fire Risk,Risk Control,Risk Financing,Risk Grading,RBI, |
出版年 : | 2006 |
學位: | 博士 |
摘要: | 性能式法規是最近成為防火研究界普遍重視的主題,許多研究以動態模擬進行分析,這可能解決特殊建築物專案型性能式的規劃設計驗證,但此類數值模擬所展現的動態成果與火場實驗的驗證間,仍存有相當差異,主要原因為動態火災模模擬設定了相當多的假設,如防火區劃不受破壞、起火物不消失傾毀、主動式設備必然動作等,造成模擬結果與真實火災後調查原因經常無法搭配。本研究嘗試從風險管理的角度,探討全面性火災風險量化的主題,包含動態分析的工程模式與靜態分析的機率模式及決定模式,配合災例準則性及工程計算性,將火災風險量化區分成(1)火災風險量化評估(2)火災損失評估系統(3)火災爆炸評估系統。於火災風險量化評估中分析全世界各大再保險公司、保險公司及保險經紀人公司所採用的評估系統,研究團隊依風險管理理論開發出風險因素權重差異及風險因素間加(or)乘(and)關係的應用系統;發現在五年實例驗證中,包括核保利潤、災案評級及損失率控制,均有不錯的效果。於火災損失評估系統中,分析世界各國建築防火評估系統,採用兼顧工程計算及風險機率的加拿大FiRECAM軟體模式,藉由產險公司的災前風險查勘報告與災後理賠公證報告,分析國內實際火損案例並加以說明。於火災爆炸評估系統中,強調火災風險中難以承受的MPL(最大可能損失)觀念的重要與應用,以第二大再保人EXTOOL軟體實例分析具有爆炸風險的國內化工廠與電廠預定地。綜上由於整體火災風險量化研究結果,最後利用國外風險管理模式推動電氣火災風險改善對策,實際應用風險控制成本風險基礎檢測(RBI)的觀念,主動對火災風險進行風險理財,使建築防火安全更能實際有效施行。 Performance-based fire safety design has become a hot topic recently, so many researches study in the dynamic simulation analysis, but the result only solves the evaluation during the projected design stage. Furthermore we know that there exists a difference between dynamic simulation and practical fire testing, where the major reasons including those dynamic simulations set many assumptions such as fire compartments not being damaged, combustibles not disappearing and active fire protection devices effective etc., result in not fitting to the fire loss investigation. The research tries to discuss a whole quantitative assessment from the view of risk management, which meanwhile covers engineering of dynamic simulation, probabilistic model and deterministic model of static analysis. For the fire risk quantitative assessment, it would be divided into three parts: (1) Fire allied risk evaluation and grading, analyzing the related system applied in the top units of reinsurances, insurances and brokers worldwide to develop a comprehensive score including risk factors by weighting and “AND/OR” function between risk factors. After 5 years of application practically in industrial complex, the result gets good performance in underwriting profit, fire loss cases and loss ratio control. (2) Expected fire loss assessment, analyzing famous fire safety assessment system in different countries and choosing FiRECAMTM system of Canada, considering engineering model and probability model. Meanwhile the research verifies the capability of the system by means of the risk assessment report and claim report from insurance company. (3) Maximum possible loss, MPL. Risk is correlated by loss frequency and severity, so MPL maybe damages a company to fall away, especially for exposure of explosion fire. The research emphasizes the philosophy and appliance of MPL and furthermore utilizes the EXTOOL package of Swiss Re. in the assessment of a petrochemical plant and a power plant. Finally, combining the solutions of risk quantitative evaluation to discuss the main causes of fire in Taiwan region, Electrical fire, find the good improvement by prediction maintenance, applying infrared thermo-graphic inspection to analyze the possible ignition source, and run a good loss control policy. To sum up, the research interlinks risk financing and risk control from the risk quantitative assessment through three systems and prediction maintenance appliance to enhance the real fire safety. |
URI: | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/32194 |
全文授權: | 有償授權 |
顯示於系所單位: | 機械工程學系 |
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